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Market External Events as Triggers of the 1991-1997 Residential Construction Peak in Taiwan

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  • Hsieh, Hui-Yuan

    (Department of Business Administration, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung Taiwan)

  • Forster, John

    (School of Business and Management, The American University of Sharjah, Sharjah United Arab Emirates AND Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith University, Brisbane Australia)

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    Abstract

    Between 1991 and 1993 the construction of residential units in Taiwan rose to triple normal levels. Identifying the surge as an event as opposed to a fluctuation in the production time-series, we ask what triggered this surge in physical production. Price mechanisms within the Taiwanese housing market offered no solution, and only limited help in deciding which of many market-external events affected production. This forced an exhaustive examination of large numbers of market-external events as potential triggers and intensifiers of the production surge. This approach led to different conclusions from all earlier analyses. A complex sequence of triggers and their interactions that intensified the surge is presented. This interpretation stands opposed to previous mono-causal explanations. This new interpretation – multiple unique events interacting to trigger and intensify another unique event – indicates limits to econometric methods in empirical economics. Consequently specific attention is paid to the development of a qualitative methodology.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance in its journal Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP).

    Volume (Year): 37 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 15-40

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    Handle: RePEc:eap:articl:v:37:y:2007:i:1:p:15-40

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    Keywords: Housing; Residential;

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    1. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    2. Agénor,Pierre-Richard & Miller,Marcus & Vines,David & Weber,Axel (ed.), 1999. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770804.
    3. Spencer Henson & Mario Mazzocchi, 2002. "Impact of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy on Agribusiness in the United Kingdom: Results of an Event Study of Equity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 370-386.
    4. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    5. Giaccotto, Carmelo & Sfiridis, James M., 1996. "Hypothesis testing in event studies: The case of variance changes," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 349-370, October.
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