Does the Term Structure Predict Australia's Future Output Growth?
AbstractThe predictive power of the term structure of interest rates and four leading indicators for real output growth is examined using quarterly time series. Results are consistent with studies for France, Germany, the UK and Australia. The significance of the interest rate spread is robust to the inclusion of four other predictors. The annualised interest rate spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and 90-day bank bills explains 26 per cent of Australia's future output growth. It is found that the interest rate spread of Australia's major trading partners and an ABS composite leading indicator provide significant predictive power when the forecasting horizon is greater than 6 quarters. The results indicate that quarterly growth rates of Ml and the S&P/ASX 200 share price index are useful predictors of Australia's GDP growth when forecasting horizons are less than 10 (or 12) quarters.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance in its journal Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP).
Volume (Year): 34 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
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Growth; Interest Rates; Interest; Output; Term Structure of Interest Rates;
Other versions of this item:
- Abbas Valadkhani, 2003. "Does The Term Structure Predict Australia’S Future Output Growth?," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 139, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
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