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Demographic Transition and Optimal Saving in Four Asian Countries

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Author Info

  • Guest, R.S.

    (Graduate School of Management, Griffith University)

  • McDonald, I.M.

    (Department of Economics, University of Melbourne)

Abstract

This paper reports projections of the impact of prospective demographic change on the pattern of optimal national saving for four Asian countries: Philippines, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore for the period from 2000 to 2050. The method is simulation of a Ramsey model of optimal saving for a small open economy with vintage capital. The simulations show that variations on prospective demographic change cause variations in the patterns of optimal rates of national saving, reinforcing the idea that evaluations of a country's saving performance should take account of its prospective demographic structure.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance in its journal Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP).

Volume (Year): 34 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 1-13

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Handle: RePEc:eap:articl:v:34:y:2004:i:1:p:1-13

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Keywords: Demographics; Saving;

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  1. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Guest, Ross S & McDonald, Ian M, 2001. "Ageing, Optimal National Saving and Future Living Standards in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(237), pages 117-34, June.
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