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Trade Reforms And Breakpoints In Australia’S Manufactured Trade: An Application Of The Zivot And Andrews Model

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  • JAYANTHAKUMARAN, Kankesu
  • PAHLAVANI; Mosayeb
  • Frank NERI, Frank

Abstract

Trade liberalization is expected to increase imports but also exports via reduced input costs and increased domestic competition. This paper investigates whether this is the case for Australian manufactured goods. We begin by briefly describing the trends in the effective rate of protection, imports and exports in Australia over the last 30 years and then investigate the existence of major structural breaks in the imports and exports series by applying the Zivot and Andrews (1992 )test, using annual time series data from 1968/69 to 2003/2004. We find that a significant structural break occurred for imports in 1988/1989, which coincides with the introduction of major trade liberalization policy. We also find a significant structural break for exports with the three-year lag in 1992/1993.

Suggested Citation

  • JAYANTHAKUMARAN, Kankesu & PAHLAVANI; Mosayeb & Frank NERI, Frank, 2007. "Trade Reforms And Breakpoints In Australia’S Manufactured Trade: An Application Of The Zivot And Andrews Model," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2), pages 69-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:4:y2007:i:2_5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. VALADKHANI, A. & LAYTON, Allan P. & PAHLAVANI, M., 2005. "Multiple Structural Breaks In Australia’S Macroeconomic Data: An Application Of The Lumsdaine And Papell Test," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 31-44.
    2. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    3. Freedman, Craig & Stonecash, Robin, 1997. "A Survey of Manufacturing Industry Policy: From the Tariff Board to the Productivity Commission," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(221), pages 169-183, June.
    4. Amelia Santos-Paulino & A.P. Thirlwall, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation And Economic Performance In Developing Countries - Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 1-3, February.
    5. Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, 2002. "Trade Reforms And Performance: Evidence From Australian Manufacturing Between 1989/90 And 1996/97," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 21(2), pages 29-43, June.
    6. Amelia Santos-Paulino & A. P. Thirlwall, 2004. "The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 50-72, February.
    7. Sanidas, Elias & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2006. "The Consequences of Trade Liberalisation on the Australian Passenger Motor Vehicle Industry," Economics Working Papers wp06-01, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    8. Craig Freedman & Robin Stonecash, 1997. "A Survey of Manufacturing Industry Policy: From the Tariff Board to the Productivity Commission," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(221), pages 169-183, June.
    9. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2004. "Is There A Long-Run Relationship Between Exports And Imports? Evidence From Two Pacific Island Countries," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 23(2), pages 152-164, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unit roots hypothesis; structural breaks; trade and Australia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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