Half-Life Deviations from PPP in the South African Development Community (SADC)
AbstractThis paper utilises various recently developed econometric methods to obtain better approximations to the half-life for real exchange rates of ten South African Development Community (SADC) countries and to generate confidence intervals for half-life deviations from the purchasing power parity (PPP). The robust methods of Stock (1991), Elliott and Stock (2001), and Hansen (1999) imply that point estimates of less than 36 months exist, making them compatible with PPP. However, the results of ADF and ADF-GLS tests render the SADC real exchange rates as nonstationary processes, a result that is patently at odds with mean-reversion, implying at the same time the possibility of infinite half-lives. Therefore the empirical results appearing in this paper do not convincingly resolve the half-life version of the PPP puzzle and leaves room for future research in the directions of non-parametric methods and median unbiased confidence intervals.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.
Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rossi, Barbara, 2005.
"Confidence Intervals for Half-Life Deviations From Purchasing Power Parity,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association,
American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 432-442, October.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2002. "Confidence Intervals for Half-life Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics 02-08, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December.
- Manzur, Meher, 1990. "An international comparison of prices and exchange rates: a new test of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 75-91, March.
- James H. Stock, 1991.
"Confidence Intervals for the Largest Autoresgressive Root in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H., 1991. "Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December.
- Diebold, F.X. & Kilian, L. & Nerlove, Marc, 2006.
"Time Series Analysis,"
Working Papers, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics
28556, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
- Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Fung, Hung-Gay & Lo, Wai-Chung, 1992. "Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 553-70, November.
- Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 2001. "Confidence intervals for autoregressive coefficients near one," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 155-181, July.
- Thabo Mokoena & Rangan Gupta & Renee van Eyden, 2008.
"Testing for PPP Using SADC Real Exchange Rates,"
200822, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Tm Mokoena, 2007. "Taking The Puzzle Out Of The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle: An Application In Respect Of South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(1), pages 22-34, 03.
- Kim, Jae H. & Silvapulle, Param & Hyndman, Rob J., 2007.
"Half-life estimation based on the bias-corrected bootstrap: A highest density region approach,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3418-3432, April.
- Jae Kim & Param Silvapulle & Rob J. Hyndman, 2006. "Half-Life Estimation based on the Bias-Corrected Bootstrap: A Highest Density Region Approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics 11/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Thabo Mokoena & Rangan Gupta & Renee Van Eyden, 2008. "Testing for Fractional Integration in SADC Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 200811, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Shang-Jin Wei & David C. Parsley, 1995. "Purchasing Power Disparity During the Floating Rate Period: Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade Barriers and Other Culprits," NBER Working Papers 5032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994.
"A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley C95-051, University of California at Berkeley.
- Goodness C. Aye & Samrat Goswami & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Metropolitan House Prices In India: Do They Converge?," Working Papers 201220, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.