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Inflationary Expectations In Ethiopia: Some Preliminary Results

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  • LOENING, Josef

    ()

  • TAKADA, Hideki

    ()

Abstract

We analyze short-run dynamics of inflation in Ethiopia, using a parsimonious error-correction model fitted with monthly observations. Our findings show that increased money supply and the nominal exchange rate significantly affect inflation in the short-run. Agricultural output shocks, proxied by a cereal-weighted agricultural production index, are also important. By providing an accommodative financial environment, our findings suggest that monetary policy in Ethiopia triggers price inertia, which has large and persistent effects. A simulation suggests that monetary policy alone may be unfeasible to control inflation effectively. To circumvent an extreme tightening with discouraging impacts on growth, additional measures are needed. These should improve the transparency and credibility of monetary policy, and reduce structural barriers that affect price formation and market efficiency.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 159-176

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:8:y:2008:i:2_13

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Related research

Keywords: Ethiopia; Error-correction Model; Inflation; Inertia.;

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  1. Alexis Anagnostopoulos & Omar Licandro & Italo Bove & Karl Schlag, 2007. "An Evolutionary Theory of Inflation Inertia," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 433-443, 04-05.
  2. Laurence Ball, 1990. "Why Does High Inflation Raise Inflation Uncertainty?," NBER Working Papers 3224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter.
  4. Njuguna S. Ndung'u & Dick Durevall, 1999. "A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya, 1974-1996," IMF Working Papers 99/97, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Almeida Neto, Heitor Vieira de & Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar, 1999. "Optimal State-Dependent Rules, Credibility, and Inflation Inertia," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 349, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  6. Dexter, Albert S. & Levi, Maurice D. & Nault, Barrie R., 2002. "Sticky prices: the impact of regulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 797-821, May.
  7. Conrad, C. & Karanasos, M., 2005. "On the inflation-uncertainty hypothesis in the USA, Japan and the UK: a dual long memory approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 327-343, August.
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