Domestic Debt, Inflation And Economic Crises: A Panel Cointegration Application To Emerging And Developed Economies
AbstractThe paper aims to investigate the economic relationship between inflation and domestic debt. In countries that experience high inflation, the inflationary process fed on increasing costs of domestic debt. As a result, the increasing debt to GDP ratios led these countries to borrow at higher interest rates and with lower maturity rates. The paper aims to divide countries into three groups. First group consists of Mexico, Turkey and Brazil; countries with high inflation experiences which result in increasing costs of domestic debt. Second group consists of Belgium, Canada and Japan, low inflation rates, low costs of borrowing. Third group consists of Portugal, Greece and Spain, countries with low inflation, high borrowing with low costs of borrowing and fiscal discipline. It is observed that, increasing costs of borrowing is epidemic to those with Non-Ricardian fiscal policies. As a result, it is not the rate of domestic debt/GDP ratio but the cost of borrowing and active fiscal regimes that lessens the immunity of emerging economies to the economic crises. Another important result that cannot be avoided is the fact that, FMOLS and DOLS methods followed in the study resulted in similar estimates for some countries, whereas we also observe very different estimates for others.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.
Volume (Year): 7 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
- H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Woodford, Michael, 2001.
"Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
- Melike Bildirici & Özgür Ömer ERS?N & Elçin Aykaç ALP, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Debt Policies, External Dependence, Inflation and Crisis in the Ottoman Empire and Turkey: 1830-2005 Period," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 79-100.
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