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On The Fisher Effect And Inflation Dynamics In Low-Income Countries: An Assessment Of Sub-Saharan Africa Economies

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  • NANDWA, Boaz

Abstract

Controlling for structural breaks, this study examines whether the relationship between the interest rate and inflation exhibits common stochastic trends in a sample of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) economies. The results indicate that while the Fisher effect does not hold for the entire sample period, 1980:I-2005:II nor in pre-economic reforms period, this relationship holds for the post-economic reforms (deregulated financial markets and exchange rate float regime) period, 1995:I-2005:II. Further, from the vector error-correction model (VECM), we find a less than proportionate response of short-term adjustment of the nominal interest rate to expected inflation. This implies that, compared to the long-term, in the short-term the nominal interest rate are poor predictors of inflation and the monetary policy in these countries is unlikely to impact on ex ante real interest rates in the long-term.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:6:y:2006:i:1_13

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Related research

Keywords: Monetary policy; the Fisher effect and Sub-Saharan Africa;

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References

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
  2. Martin D.D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Working Papers 93-06, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 280.
  5. Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 1999. "On the Fisher effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 105-130, August.
  6. Carmichael, Jeffrey & Stebbing, Peter W, 1983. "Fisher's Paradox and the Theory of Interest," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 619-30, September.
  7. Mishkin, F.S., 1988. "What Does The Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Papers fb-_88-29, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  8. Kate Phylaktis & David Blake, 1993. "The fisher hypothesis: Evidence from three high inflation economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 591-599, September.
  9. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
  10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  11. Engsted, Tom, 1995. "Does the Long-Term Interest Rate Predict Future Inflation? A Multi-country Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 42-54, February.
  12. John Thornton, 1996. "The adjustment of nominal interest rates in Mexico: a study of the Fisher effect," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 255-257.
  13. Lahiri, Kajal, 1976. "Inflationary Expectations: Their Formation and Interest Rate Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(1), pages 124-31, March.
  14. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June.
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