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Does the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Hold for Asian Countries?. An Empirical Analysis using Panel Data and Cointegration Tests

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Drine, I.
Rault, Ch.

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Abstract

This paper tests empirically the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) hypothesis using annual data for 6 Asian countries. We apply new panel data cointegration techniques recently developed by Pedroni (2000, 2004) and we compare the results with those obtained with conventional Johansen (1995)’s time series cointegration tests. Whereas, standard time series approach turns out to be able to put in evidence a significant long-run relationship between real exchange rate and productivity differential; this relationship is strongly rejected for all countries using recent advances in the econometrics of non-stationary dynamic panel methods. Closer exminations of the three key components of the BS hypothesis enable us to identify clearly the causes of this empirical failure. We find that the absence of a positive long-run relationship between productivity differential and relative prices is the reason for this rejection

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Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 4 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:4:y:2004:i:1_28

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Related research
Keywords: Real Exchange Rate; Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis; Asian countries; Panel unit-root and cointegration tests;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
F0 - International Economics - - General
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods

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  1. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Panel unit root tests of purchasing power parity for price indices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 489-506, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Patrick K. Asea, 1994. "The Balassa-Samuelson Model: A General Equilibrium Appraisal," UCLA Economics Working Papers 709, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
  6. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1992. "A Time-Series Approach to Test the Productivity Bias Hypothesis in Purchasing Power Parity," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2), pages 227-36.
  8. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. DeLoach, Stephen B, 2001. "More Evidence in Favor of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 336-42, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Traded Goods Consumption Smoothing and the Random Walk Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Asea, Patrick K & Mendoza, Enrique G, 1994. "The Balassa-Samuelson Model: A General-Equilibrium Appraisal," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 244-67, October.
  13. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2003. "Do panel data permit the rescue of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis for Latin American countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 351-359, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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