Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

A Markov Chain Model of Inflation in India

Contents:

Author Info

  • Vijayamohanan Pillai N

    (Centre for Development Studies, Prasanth Nagar, Ulloor, Trivandrum-695 011, Kerala, India)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In this paper, we advance a Markov chain model for price movements in India, based on the general as well as a selected set of sectional wholesale price indices and on the three consumer price indices for 240 months from April 1981 to March 2001. The estimation period has been divided into two, viz., pre-liberalisation and post-liberalisation, of 10 years each. We consider 3 general states of monthly price changes-positive (tentatively suggesting inflation), negative (deflation), and zero (stable prices), and estimate the state transition probabilities and the steady state probabilities along with the return periods of these three states of price level changes. It is found that in general the state of inflation persists with a high probability and a much shorter return period in India. This indicates that price rises have been cumulative and hence inflationary in effect.

    Download Info

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics in its journal Indian Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 91-116

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:37:y:2002:i:1:p:91-116

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: University of Delhi, Delhi 110 007
    Phone: 91-11-2766-6533/34/35, 2766-6703/04/05
    Fax: +91-11-7667159
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.ierdse.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Email:
    Web: http://www.ierdse.org/

    Related research

    Keywords: India; Inflation; Markov chains; State transition Probability; Steady state probability; Return Period;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Pillai N., Vijayamohanan, 2008. "Infrastructure, Growth And Human Development In Kerala," MPRA Paper 7017, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:37:y:2002:i:1:p:91-116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Pami Dua).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.