IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/diw/diwwob/82-45-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integration von Flüchtlingen: eine langfristig lohnende Investition

Author

Listed:
  • Marcel Fratzscher
  • Simon Junker

Abstract

The debate about the massive influx of refugees into Germany often focuses solely on the short-term costs. But while these expenditures are bound to be substantial in the coming years, the discussion neglects the long-term economic potential of a successful integration of refugees—often, young people—which can transform the initial expenditure into a worthwhile investment. Even if many of the refugees’ labor market prospects may be relatively poor for the first few years due to a lack of qualifications, and those who do find employment may be less productive than the average German worker, the long-term gains are likely to exceed the costs. This study uses simple simulated calculations to outline the economic potential by comparing the costs and benefits of an integration in the long run. In addition to a baseline scenario, this article investigates both an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario. (It should be emphasized, however, that these are simulations and not forecasts—clearly, more detailed studies are needed to measure these effects more precisely.) The central question boils down to when, not whether, the integration of refugees gains sufficient momentum to outweigh the costs—because even if the labor market integration turns out to be sluggish, the refugees will still have a positive impact on the German economy after five to ten years. Most importantly, even in terms of per capita income of non-refugees, the benefits will exceed the costs in the long-term, thus highlighting the benefits to the entire economy. Der starke Zustrom von Flüchtlingen heizt die Diskussionen in Deutschland an. Dabei wird oft nur auf kurzfristige Kosten geschaut, die in den kommenden Jahren zweifellos massiv sein werden. Dies versperrt den Blick auf potentielle Chancen, die die Zuwanderung – oftmals junger Menschen – der deutschen Gesellschaft bietet. Gelingt die Integration in den Arbeitsmarkt, werden die anfänglichen Ausgaben zu einer Investition in die Zukunft: Selbst wenn viele Flüchtlinge aufgrund fehlender Qualifikationen kurzfristig vergleichsweise schlechte Aussichten am Arbeitsmarkt haben und diejenigen, die den Weg in eine Beschäftigung finden, oftmals unterdurchschnittlich produktiv sind, werden langfristig die positiven wirtschaftlichen Impulse für Deutschland die Kosten übertreffen. Wenngleich offenkundig noch detailliertere Studien erforderlich sind, um die Effekte genauer einzugrenzen, versucht dieser Bericht, anhand einfacher Simulationsrechnungen das Potential einer Integration zu umreißen, das auf lange Sicht betrachtet die anfänglichen Kosten durchaus rechtfertigt. Dabei werden neben einem Basisszenario ein optimistisches undein pessimistisches Szenario untersucht. Es kann nicht stark genug betont werden, dass es sich hierbei um Simulationen handelt und nicht um Prognosen, die versuchen, die Zukunft vorherzusagen. Die zentrale Frage ist nicht, ob die Flüchtlinge langfristig einen wirtschaftlichen Nutzen für Deutschland bedeuten, sondern lediglich, wie schnell die Leistungen der Flüchtlinge die zusätzlichen Ausgaben übertreffen. Denn auch wenn die Integration in den Arbeitsmarkt langsamer verlaufen sollte als erhofft, so werden die Flüchtlinge langfristig einen positiven wirtschaftlichen Beitrag für Deutschland leisten. Mehr noch: Auch die bereits in Deutschland lebenden Bürger werden langfristig von der Zuwanderung profitieren und ein höheres Pro-Kopf-Einkommen erzielen.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Fratzscher & Simon Junker, 2015. "Integration von Flüchtlingen: eine langfristig lohnende Investition," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 82(45), pages 1083-1088.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:82-45-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.518252.de/15-45-4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bach, Stefan & Brücker, Herbert & Deuverden, Kristina van & Haan, Peter & Romiti, Agnese & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "Fiskalische und gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte: Investitionen in die Integration der Flüchtlinge lohnen sich (Fiscal and macroeconomic effects: Worthwhile investment in the integration of refugees)," IAB-Kurzbericht 201702, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2023. "Between fearmongers and Samaritans: Does information provision affect attitudes towards the right of asylum in Germany?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(4), pages 749-777, November.
    3. Gerrit Manthei, 2021. "The Long-Term Growth Impact of Refugee Migration in Europe: A Case Study," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(1), pages 50-58, January.
    4. Aretz, Bodo & Christofzik, Désirée I. & Scheuering, Uwe & Werding, Martin, 2016. "Auswirkungen der Flüchtlingsmigration auf die langfristige Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen," Working Papers 06/2016, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    5. Manthei, Gerrit, 2020. "The long-term growth impact of refugee migration in Europe: A case study," FZG Discussion Papers 71, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    6. Kristina Gorodetski & Anke Mönnig & Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter, 2016. "Zuwanderung nach Deutschland – Mittel- bis langfristige Projektionen mit dem Modell TINFORGE," GWS Discussion Paper Series 16-1, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Income distribution; migration; demographic trends; macroeconomic effects; unemployment; productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:82-45-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.