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Reale Nettovermögen der Privathaushalte in Deutschland sind von 2003 bis 2013 geschrumpft

Author

Listed:
  • Markus M. Grabka
  • Christian Westermeier

Abstract

Studies indicating the development of household wealth in Germany are typically based on nominal values and do not take account of price rises and thus the actual purchasing power of those assets. DIW Berlin took inflation into account in a recent evaluation and concluded that the average net worth of households in Germany decreased in real terms by almost 15 percent from 2003 to 2013. This figure, based on the German Income and Expenditure Survey (Einkommens- und Verbrauchsstichprobe, EVS) of the Federal Statistical Office, is confirmed by data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) study and shows that real assets declined by more than 11 percent between 2002 and 2012. In particular, the weak performance of the estimated fair value of owner-occupied real estate is likely to have contributed to this decline. In contrast to DIW Berlin’s findings, the national accounts system (Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen, VGR) indicated an increase in real net worth of around 19 percent between 2003 and 2013. This discrepancy is likely due to the different evaluation methods used. The development of wealth held by the most affluent individuals is not likely to be responsible for the decline in the overall volume of real assets: Although the EVS and SOEP samples do not provide any details concerning the development of wealth held by the most affluent individuals, because these are either not meaningful or did not appear in the surveys at all, an analysis of the largest asset-holders based on information provided by manager magazin suggests that between 2007 and 2012 their assets stagnated on average. The relevant factors for successful wealth accumulation are regular saving, capital gains, and, in particular, inheritances and gifts. In addition, net asset values held by private households rise considerably whenever debtors pay off their liabilities in accordance with contracts. Studien, die die Entwicklung der Vermögen privater Haushalte in Deutschland darstellen, stützen sich typischerweise auf nominale Werte, lassen also Preissteigerungen und somit die tatsächliche Kaufkraft des Vermögens außen vor. Das DIW Berlin hat in einer aktuellen Auswertung die Inflation berücksichtigt und kommt zu dem Ergebnis: Das durchschnittliche reale Nettovermögen der Privathaushalte in Deutschland ist in den Jahren 2003 bis 2013 real um knapp 15 Prozent geschrumpft. Diese Zahl, die auf der Einkommens- und Verbrauchsstichprobe (EVS) des Statistischen Bundesamtes basiert, wird bestätigt durch Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP), denen zufolge die realen Vermögen in den Jahren 2002 bis 2012 um mehr als elf Prozent gesunken sind. Dazu beigetragen haben dürfte vor allem die schwache Entwicklung der geschätzten Marktwerte selbstgenutzter Immobilien. Dass die Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen (VGR) im Kontrast zu den Ergebnissen des DIW Berlin einen Anstieg der realen Nettovermögen von 2003 bis 2013 um rund 19 Prozent ausweisen, dürfte an einer abweichenden Bewertungsmethode liegen. Für den Rückgang der realen Vermögen insgesamt dürften nicht die Top-Vermögenden verantwortlich sein: Zwar fehlen in den EVS- und SOEP-Stichproben Angaben zur Entwicklung der höchsten Vermögen, da diese in Umfragen nicht aussagekräftig repräsentiert oder gar nicht vorhanden sind. Eine Analyse der Top-Vermögenden auf Basis der Angaben des Manager Magazins legt jedoch nahe, dass deren Vermögen in den Jahren 2007 bis 2012 im Durchschnitt stagnierten. Maßgebliche Faktoren für einen erfolgreichen Vermögensaufbau sind regelmäßiges Sparen, Wertsteigerungen und vor allem Erbschaften und Schenkungen. Vermögen steigen zudem in erheblichem Umfang, wenn Schuldner regelgebunden ihre Verbindlichkeiten tilgen.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus M. Grabka & Christian Westermeier, 2015. "Reale Nettovermögen der Privathaushalte in Deutschland sind von 2003 bis 2013 geschrumpft," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 82(34), pages 727-738.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:82-34-1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Timm Bönke & Markus M. Grabka & Carsten Schröder & Edward N. Wolff & Lennard Zyska, 2019. "The Joint Distribution of Net Worth and Pension Wealth in Germany," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 65(4), pages 834-871, December.
    2. Dilla, Diana, 2017. "Staatsverschuldung und Verschuldungsmentalität [Public Debt and Debt Mentality]," MPRA Paper 79432, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wealth in Germany; wealth mobility; wealth accumulation; SOEP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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