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Sommerpause bei der Arbeitslosigkeit: Google-gestützte Prognose signalisiert Entspannung

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Author Info
Nikos Askitas
Klaus F. Zimmermann

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Abstract

Die große Wirtschaftskrise hat bisher nur verhaltene Spuren am Arbeitsmarkt hinterlassen. Angesichts der unsicheren weiteren konjunkturellen Entwicklung, der schlechten Auslastung der Arbeitskräfte in den Unternehmen und der hohen Kurzarbeit erwarten viele Beobachter zum Herbst einen dramatischen Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit mit einer baldigen Überschreitung der Vier-Millionen-Grenze. Nach Prognosen unter Verwendung von Google- Internetzugriffsstatistiken bleibt es aber im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahlen in den Sommermonaten August und September aller Voraussicht nach völlig ruhig. Saisonal bedingt geht die Arbeitslosigkeit sogar zurück. Damit wird die Gefahr, dass eine Arbeitslosenzahl von vier Millionen in diesem Jahr erreicht wird, weiter unwahrscheinlicher.

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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Wochenbericht.

Volume (Year): 76 (2009)
Issue (Month): 33 ()
Pages: 561-566
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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:76-33-3

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Related research
Keywords: Google; Internet; Keyword search; Search engine; Unemployment; Predictions;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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