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Produktivitätswachstum in Deutschland: kein nachhaltiger Aufschwung in Sicht

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Author Info
Georg Erber
Ulrich Fritsche

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Abstract

Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktivitätsentwicklung in Deutschland ist nach dem Wiedervereinigungsboom im internationalen Vergleich deutlich eingebrochen. Nicht nur gegenüber den USA und Schwellenländern wie Südkorea, sondern auch im Vergleich zu anderen EU-Staaten fiel Deutschland seitdem zurück. Jedoch hat der wirtschaftliche Aufschwung im Jahr 2006 vorübergehend zu einem Anstieg der Stundenproduktivität je Erwerbstätigen geführt. Kann dieser Anstieg als eine Rückkehr zu einem höheren Trendwachstum gedeutet werden? Ökonometrische Tests zeigen, dass es sich wohl vor allem um einen konjunkturell bedingten Anstieg handeln dürfte. Der Rückgang der trendmäßigen Wachstumsrate ist demnach bestenfalls zum Stillstand gekommen. Soll sich das Produktivitätswachstum dauerhaft verbessern, ist eine wachstumsorientierte Wirtschaftspolitik erforderlich.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.88561.de/08-36-1.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Wochenbericht.

Volume (Year): 75 (2008)
Issue (Month): 36 ()
Pages: 512-519
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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:75-36-1

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Related research
Keywords: Productivity growth; Time series decomposition; Business cycle; Long-term trend;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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