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Quo vadis? Deutsche forschungsintensive Exporte auf dem richtigen Weg

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  • Marius Clemens
  • Florian Mölders

Abstract

This article examines the impact of the financial crisis on changes in the sectoral and geographic specialization of Germany's trade in research-intensive industries. In the first part of this article we calculate and analyze indicators of sectoral specialization for Germany, the US, Japan and the BRIC countries for the period from 2000 to 2010. While German exports in R&D-intensive industries have declined during the crisis, Germany has not fallen behind in terms of export shares on the world market, as opposed to the US and Japan. The impact of the economic turmoil of the past years did not only affect the sectoral level but also the geographic orientation of Germany's exports and its competitors. In the second part, we therefore additionally calculate an indicator that refers to the geographic concentration of exports. It is shown that German exports in R&D-intensive industries are shifting towards Emerging Markets. Should this trend continue, the growth of the German R&D-intensive exports will depend increasingly on these economies. Against the background of the continued economic growth in the BRIC countries and as drivers of the world economy, their increasing demand may have a sustainable positive effect on the R&D-intensive industry in Germany. Dieser Artikel untersucht, ob die Finanzkrise zu einer nachhaltigen Veränderung der sektoralen und geografischen Spezialisierung Deutschlands im Handel mit forschungsintensiven Gütern geführt hat. Dazu werden im ersten Teil sektorale Spezialisierungsindikatoren für Deutschland, die USA, Japan und die BRIC-Staaten im Zeitraum 2000-2010 berechnet und analysiert. Es zeigt sich, dass die deutschen forschungsintensiven Exporte während der Finanzkrise zwar zurückgegangen sind, aber Deutschland - anders als die USA und Japan - auf dem Weltmarkt keine Exportanteile verloren hat. Die Auswirkungen der Finanzkrise machen sich jedoch nicht nur auf sektoraler Ebene bemerkbar, sondern auch bei der geografischen Ausrichtung der Exportströme Deutschlands und seiner Wettbewerber. Deshalb wird im zweiten Teil ein Indikator entwickelt, der sich entsprechend auf die geografische Konzentration von Exporten bezieht. Es ist zu erkennen, dass Deutschlands Ausfuhren von forschungsintensiven Waren vermehrt auf die Emerging Markets ausgerichtet sind. Sollte sich dieser Trend fortsetzen, so hängt das Wachstum der deutschen forschungsintensiven Exporte vermehrt von diesen Märkten ab. Vor dem Hintergrund eines anhaltend starken Wachstums der BRIC-Staaten ist davon auszugehen, dass deren Nachfrage als Motor der Weltwirtschaft einen nachhaltig positiven Effekt auf die forschungsintensive Industrie Deutschlands haben wird.

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File URL: http://ejournals.duncker-humblot.de/doi/pdf/10.3790/vjh.80.3.73
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Volume (Year): 80 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 73-88

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:80-3-5

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Keywords: International trade; country and industry studies of trade; manufacturing industries;

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