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Schätzung des Risikos der Bevölkerung durch Terroranschläge als Ergänzung für sicherheitsökonomische Betrachtungen

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  • Dietmar Borst
  • Ute Werner
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    Abstract

    To provide a foundation for political decisions regarding terrorism in Germany, this risk must be thoroughly analyzed. Therefore, an objective risk assessment has to be undertaken. This was done in a sub-project of "Risk Map Germany" (www.cedim.de). Such a spatial mapping of risks requires a precise definition and delineation of relevant risk components. This paper focuses on the terrorism-induced risk of the population. The regional magnitude of the threat and the distinctive vulnerability of different groups of people are analyzed. Following an explanation of the risk concept used and its components in chapter 2, we introduce our methodology of risk assessment in chapter 3. Chapter 4 contains exemplary applications. Chapter 5 concludes the paper with a short discussion of data needs, limitations of the methodology presented and further research potential. Um politische Entscheidungen zum Umgang mit dem Terrorismus in Deutschland treffen zu können, ist eine eingehende Analyse dieses Risikos in allen seinen Facetten vonnöten. Eine Grundlage dafür bildet die Schätzung des objektiven Risikos. Letzteres wurde im Teilprojekt "manmade hazards" der "Risikokarte Deutschland" (www.cedim.de) verfolgt. Die räumliche Abbildung von Risiken verlangt nach einer präzisen Abgrenzung und Definition relevanter Risikokomponenten. Im vorliegenden Beitrag steht das Risiko der Bevölkerung durch Terrorismus im Fokus. Hierzu werden das regionale Ausmaß der Gefährdung und die spezifische Vulnerabilität verschiedener Bevölkerungsgruppen analysiert. Nach einer Erläuterung des verwendeten Risikokonzepts und seiner Komponenten (Kapitel 2) wird das methodische Vorgehen zur Risikoschätzung in Kapitel 3 vorgestellt. Kapitel 4 enthält exemplarische Anwendungen der Methodik. Das abschließende Fazit im 5. Kapitel umfasst eine kurze Diskussion von Datenbedarf beziehungsweise Einsatzmöglichkeiten der vorgestellten Methodik und identifiziert weiteren Forschungsbedarf.

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    File URL: http://ejournals.duncker-humblot.de/DH/doi/pdf/10.3790/vjh.78.4.101
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

    Volume (Year): 78 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 101-118

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    Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:78-4-9

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    Related research

    Keywords: Terrorism risk assessment; risk mapping; population at risk;

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