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The Global Economy and the Euro Area: Uncertainty Weighing on World Trade and Industry: DIW Economic Outlook

Author

Listed:
  • Claus Michelsen
  • Guido Baldi
  • Geraldine Dany-Knedlik
  • Hella Engerer
  • Stefan Gebauer
  • Malte Rieth
  • Thore Schlaak

Abstract

The ongoing trade conflicts initiated by the US and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit are negatively affecting the global economy. Global trade and investment activity, and thus in many places industrial output, are the areas most impacted. Consumption, however, is continuing to support the economy in many countries. DIW Berlin is expecting global GDP to grow to 3.7 percent this year and to slightly less in the following two years. Serious risks are weighing on the outlook, as the trade conflicts could continue to escalate and spread to the EU and the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit has increased.

Suggested Citation

  • Claus Michelsen & Guido Baldi & Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Hella Engerer & Stefan Gebauer & Malte Rieth & Thore Schlaak, 2019. "The Global Economy and the Euro Area: Uncertainty Weighing on World Trade and Industry: DIW Economic Outlook," DIW Weekly Report, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 9(37), pages 328-329.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwdwr:dwr9-37-2
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    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.678206.de/dwr-19-37-2.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle forecast; economic outlook;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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