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Speculative Bubble on Housing Markets: Elements of an Early Warning System

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Dreger
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin

Abstract

Excessive speculation on asset markets can cause significant macroeconomic losses in terms of production and employment. Such developments should be detected as early and as reliably as possible in order to enable corrective action through adequate economic policy measures. This is the goal of the early warning system, which was developed by DIW Berlin on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Finance for the housing market. The early warning system predicts price surges on real estate market that were caused by speculation. If speculative price developments are detected quickly, economic policy has enough leeway to find an adequate response and possibly prevent further development of the bubble.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "Speculative Bubble on Housing Markets: Elements of an Early Warning System," DIW Economic Bulletin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 1(4), pages 3-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwdeb:2011-4-1
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    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.386687.de/diw_econ_bull_2011-04-1.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Hamid Norfiqiri & Razali Muhammad Najib & Azmi Fatin Afiqah & Daud Siti Zaleha & Yunus Nurhidayah Md., 2022. "Prospecting Housing Bubbles in Malaysia," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 30(4), pages 74-88, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; early warning system; price bubbles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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