The compression of deaths above the mode
AbstractKannisto (2001) has shown that as the frequency distribution of ages at death has shifted to the right, the age distribution of deaths above the modal age has become more compressed. In order to further investigate this old-age mortality compression, we adopt the simple logistic model with two parameters, which is known to fit data on old-age mortality well (Thatcher 1999). Based on the model, we show that three key measures of old-age mortality (the modal age of adult deaths, the life expectancy at the modal age, and the standard deviation of ages at death above the mode) can be estimated fairly accurately from death rates at only two suitably chosen high ages (70 and 90 in this study). The distribution of deaths above the modal age becomes compressed when the logits of death rates fall more at the lower age than at the higher age. Our analysis of mortality time series in six countries, using the logistic model, endorsed Kannistoâ€™s conclusion. Some possible reasons for the compression are discussed.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.
Volume (Year): 22 (2010)
Issue (Month): 17 (March)
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Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/
compression of mortality; lexis model; logistic model; modal age of death; oldest old mortality decline; standard deviation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General
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- Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2008. "The modal age at death and the shifting mortality hypothesis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(30), pages 1179-1204, July.
- A. R. Thatcher, 1999. "The long-term pattern of adult mortality and the highest attained age," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 162(1), pages 5-43.
- Alberto Palloni & Laeticia Souza, 2013. "The fragility of the future and the tug of the past," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(21), pages 543-578, September.
- Jean-Marie Robine & Siu Lan Karen Cheung & Shiro Horiuchi, 2010. "Arthur Roger Thatcher's contributions to longevity research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(18), pages 539-548, March.
- Alyson A. van Raalte & Pekka Martikainen & Mikko Myrskylä, 2012. "Lifespan variation by occupational class: compression or stagnation over time?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-010, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Dustin Brown & Mark Hayward & Jennifer Montez & Robert Hummer & Chi-Tsun Chiu & Mira Hidajat, 2012. "The Significance of Education for Mortality Compression in the United States," Demography, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 819-840, August.
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