Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model
AbstractThis paper aims to quantify the effects of different types of sexual risk behaviour on the spread of HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed to simulate changes in numbers of sexual partners, changes in marital status, changes in commercial sex activity and changes in the frequency of unprotected sex over the life course. This is extended to allow for the transmission of HIV, and the model is fitted to South African HIV prevalence data and sexual behaviour data. Results suggest that concurrent partnerships and other non-spousal partnerships are major drivers of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.
Volume (Year): 21 (2009)
Issue (Month): 11 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/
AIDS/HIV; sexual behavior; simulation model; South Africa;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General
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- Leigh F. Johnson & Rob Dorrington, 2006. "Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(22), pages 541-574, June.
- Hans Hansen, 2000. "An AIDS model with reproduction with an application based on data from Uganda," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 175-203.
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- Tawfik, Linda & Watkins, Susan Cotts, 2007. "Sex in Geneva, sex in Lilongwe, and sex in Balaka," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 64(5), pages 1090-1101, March.
- Emily Oster, 2005. "Sexually Transmitted Infections, Sexual Behavior, and the HIV/AIDS Epidemic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 467-515, May.
- Eaton, Liberty & Flisher, Alan J. & Aarø, Leif E., 2003. "Unsafe sexual behaviour in South African youth," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 149-165, January.
- Nnko, Soori & Boerma, J.T.J Ties & Urassa, Mark & Mwaluko, Gabriel & Zaba, Basia, 2004. "Secretive females or swaggering males?: An assessment of the quality of sexual partnership reporting in rural Tanzania," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 299-310, July.
- Eline Korenromp & Carina van Vliet & Roel Bakker & Sake de Vlas & J. Dik & F. Habbema, 2000. "HIV spread and partnership reduction for different patterns of sexual behaviour - a study with the microsimulation model STDSIM," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 135-173.
- Jewkes, Rachel & Vundule, Caesar & Maforah, Fidelia & Jordaan, Esmé, 2001. "Relationship dynamics and teenage pregnancy in South Africa," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 733-744, March.
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