Leigh Johnson (University of Cape Town) Rob Dorrington (University of Cape Town) Debbie Bradshaw (South African Medical Research Council) Victoria Pillay-Van Wyk (Human Science Research Council, Cape Town) Thomas Rehle (Human Science Research Council, Cape Town)
Abstract
This paper aims to quantify the effects of different types of sexual risk behaviour on the spread of HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed to simulate changes in numbers of sexual partners, changes in marital status, changes in commercial sex activity and changes in the frequency of unprotected sex over the life course. This is extended to allow for the transmission of HIV, and the model is fitted to South African HIV prevalence data and sexual behaviour data. Results suggest that concurrent partnerships and other non-spousal partnerships are major drivers of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa.
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Article provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.
Volume (Year): 21 (2009) Issue (Month): 11 (September) Pages: 289-340 Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
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Find related papers by JEL classification: J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General
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