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Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality

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  • Tom Moultrie

    (University of Cape Town)

  • Rob Dorrington

    (University of Cape Town)

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    Abstract

    Almost all commonly used indirect fertility estimation methods rely on the P/F ratio. As originally conceived, the ratio compares cumulated cohort fertility with cumulated period fertility on the basis of three, fairly strong, assumptions. The intention of this paper is to interrogate what happens to the results produced by the P/F ratio method as each of these three assumptions is violated, first independently, and then concurrently. These investigations are important given the generally poor quality of census data collected in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, and the radically altering demographic conditions associated with a generalised HIV/AIDS epidemic in the region.

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    File URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/46/19-46.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.

    Volume (Year): 19 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 46 (September)
    Pages: 1635-1662

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    Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:19:y:2008:i:46

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    Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

    Related research

    Keywords: AIDS/HIV; developing countries; estimation; fertility; indirect techniques;

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    1. N. Ryder, 1964. "The process of demographic translation," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 74-82, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & DESBORDES, Rodolphe & LATZER, Hélène, . "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," CORE Discussion Papers RP, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) -2160, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Leontine Alkema & Adrian Raftery & Patrick Gerland & Samuel J. Clark & Francois Pelletier, 2012. "Estimating Trends in the Total Fertility Rate with Uncertainty Using Imperfect Data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(15), pages 331-362, April.

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