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Mortality tempo-adjustment

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  • Marc Luy

    (University of Rostock)

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    Abstract

    The number of scholars following the tempo approach in fertility continues to grow, whereas tempo-adjustment in mortality generally still is rejected. This rejection is irrational in principle, as the basic idea behind the tempo approach is independent of the kind of demographic event. Providing the first empirical application to a substantial problem, this paper shows that mortality tempo-adjustment can paint a different picture of current mortality conditions compared to conventional life expectancy. An application of the Bongaarts and Feeney method to the analysis of mortality differences between western and eastern Germany shows that the eastern German disadvantages still are considerably higher and that the mortality gap between the two entities began to narrow some years later than trends in conventional life expectancy suggest. Thus, the picture drawn by tempo-adjusted life expectancy fits the expected trends of changing mortality and also the self-reported health conditions of eastern and western Germans better than that painted by conventional life expectancy.

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    File URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol15/21/15-21.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 21 (December)
    Pages: 561-590

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    Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:15:y:2006:i:21

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    Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

    Related research

    Keywords: Bongaarts and Feeney formula; Bongaarts and Feeney method; demographic period measures; life expectancy; mortality; mortality differences between West and East Germany; mortality tempo; tempo adjustment; tempo distortion; tempo effects;

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    References

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    1. James W. Vaupel, 2002. "Life Expectancy at Current Rates vs. Current Conditions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(8), pages 365-378, August.
    2. Keilman,N., 2000. "Demographic translation : from period to cohort perspective and back," Memorandum 06/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    3. Tomás Sobotka, 2004. "Is Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 195-220.
    4. Joshua Goldstein & Wolfgang Lutz & Sergei Scherbov, 2003. "Long-Term Population Decline in Europe: The Relative Importance of Tempo Effects and Generational Length," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 29(4), pages 699-707.
    5. Shiro Horiuchi, 2005. "Tempo effect on age-specific death rates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(8), pages 189-200, November.
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    7. Evert van Imhoff, 2001. "On the impossibility of inferring cohort fertility measures from period fertility measures," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(2), pages 23-64, September.
    8. Arjan Gjonca & Hilke Brockmann & Heiner Maier, 2000. "Old-Age Mortality in Germany prior to and after Reunification," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(1), July.
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    12. Tomas Sobotka, 2003. "Tempo-quantum and period-cohort interplay in fertility changes in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 8(6), pages 151-214, April.
    13. Robert Schoen, 2004. "Timing effects and the interpretation of period fertility," Demography, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 801-819, November.
    14. John Bongaarts & Griffith Feeney, 2002. "How Long Do We Live?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 13-29.
    15. James W. Vaupel, 2005. "Lifesaving, lifetimes and lifetables," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(24), pages 597-614, December.
    16. Ward, Michael P & Butz, William P, 1980. "Completed Fertility and Its Timing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 917-40, October.
    17. John R. Wilmoth, 2005. "On the relationship between period and cohort mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(11), pages 231-280, November.
    18. Evert Imhoff & Nico Keilman, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Comment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 549-553.
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