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Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research

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  • Jan M. Hoem

    (Stockholm University)

  • Michaela Kreyenfeld

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

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    Abstract

    Procedures that seek to explain current behavior by future outcomes (anticipatory analysis) constitute a widespread but problematic approach in life-course analysis because they disturb the role of time and the temporal order of events. Nevertheless the practice is often used, not least because it easily produces useful summary measures like the median age at first childbearing and the per cent permanently childless in various educational groups, defined by ultimate attainment. We use an empirical example to demonstrate the issues involved and to propose an alternative "non-anticipatory" research strategy, which, however, does not equally easily provide summary measures.

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    File URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol15/16/15-16.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 16 (November)
    Pages: 461-484

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    Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:15:y:2006:i:16

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    Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

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    Keywords: anticipatory analysis; conditioning on the future; fertility by educational attainment;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(17), pages 485-498, November.
    2. Anders Björklund, 2006. "Does family policy affect fertility?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. Martin Klesment & Allan Puur, 2010. "Effects of education on second births before and after societal transition: Evidence from the Estonian GGS," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(28), pages 891-932, May.
    2. Cornelia Muresan & Jan M. Hoem, 2009. "The negative educational gradients in Romanian fertility," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2009-019, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Daniele Vignoli & Irene Ferro, 2009. "Rising marital disruption in Italy and its correlates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(4), pages 11-36, January.
    4. David P. Lindstrom & Silvia Giorguli Saucedo, 2007. "The interrelationship of fertility, family maintenance and Mexico-U.S. Migration," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(28), pages 821-858, December.
    5. Gunnar Andersson & Marit Rønsen & Lisbeth B. Knudsen & Trude Lappegård & Gerda Neyer & Kari Skrede & Kathrin Teschner & Andres Vikat, 2009. "Cohort Fertility Patterns in the Nordic Countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(14), pages 313-352, April.
    6. Doreen Huschek & Helga de Valk & Aart C. Liefbroer, 2010. "Timing of first union among second-generation Turks in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(16), pages 473-504, March.
    7. Setsuya Fukuda, 2009. "Shifting economic foundation of marriage in Japan: the erosion of traditional marriage," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2009-033, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    8. Cordula Zabel, 2009. "Do imputed education histories provide satisfactory results in fertility analysis in the Western German context?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(6), pages 135-176, August.
    9. Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Der Einfluss der ‚Wende’ auf bildungsspezifische Fertilitätsunterschiede in Ostdeutschland," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2006-025, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    10. Kryštof Zeman, 2007. "Transition of nuptiality and fertility onset in the Czech Republic since the 1990s: the role of women’s education and its expansion," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2007-017, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    11. David Clifford, 2009. "Spousal separation, selectivity and contextual effects: exploring the relationship between international labour migration and fertility in post-Soviet Tajikistan," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(32), pages 945-975, December.
    12. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(17), pages 485-498, November.
    13. Dorothea Rieck, 2006. "Transition to second birth - the case of Russia," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2006-036, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. Jan M. Hoem & Dora Kostova & Aiva Jasilioniene & Cornelia Muresan, 2009. "The structure of recent first-union formation in Romania," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2009-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    15. Eleonora Mussino & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2008. "Fertility of migrants: a comparative study between Italy and Russia," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2008-026, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    16. Cornelia Muresan & Jan M. Hoem, 2010. "The negative educational gradients in Romanian fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(4), pages 95-114, January.

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