World Urbanization Prospects
AbstractThis paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. Projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclusion is that UN projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. The overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in Africa, India and Oceania.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.
Volume (Year): 12 (2005)
Issue (Month): 9 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/
developed countries; developing countries; environment; model; poverty; projections; urban transition; urbanization;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General
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- Cohen, Barney, 2004. "Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Current Trends and a Caution Regarding Existing Forecasts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-51, January.
- Davis, James C. & Henderson, J. Vernon, 2003. "Evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 98-125, January.
- Bloom, David E & Canning, David & Fink, Günther & Khanna, Tarun & Salyer, Patrick, 2010.
"Urban Settlement: Data, Measures, and Trends,"
Working Paper Series
UNU-WIDER Working Paper W, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- World Bank, 2009. "Mozambique - Municipal Development in Mozambique : Lessons from the First Decade - Full report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 3102, The World Bank.
- Sandrine Mesplé-Somps & Charlotte Guénard, 2006. "Measuring Inequalities: Do The Surveys Give The Real Picture? Study Of Two Surveys In Cote D’Ivoire And Madagascar," Working Papers 18, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
- Headey, Derek & Bezemer, Dirk & Hazell, Peter B., 2008. "Agricultural exit problems: Causes and consequences," IFPRI discussion papers 802, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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