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Gimme A Break! Identification And Estimation Of The Macroeconomic Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks In The United States

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  • Bacchiocchi, Emanuele
  • Castelnuovo, Efrem
  • Fanelli, Luca

Abstract

We employ a non-recursive identification scheme to identify the effects of a monetary policy shock in a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model for the US post-WWII quarterly data. The identification of the shock is achieved via heteroskedasticity, and different on-impact macroeconomic responses are allowed for (but not imposed) in each volatility regime. We show that the impulse responses obtained with the suggested non-recursive identification scheme are quite similar to those conditional on a recursive VAR estimated with pre-1984 data. In contrast, recursive vs. non-recursive identification schemes return different short-run responses of output and investment during the Great Moderation. Robustness checks dealing with a different definition of investment, an alternative break-point, and federal funds futures rates as an indicator of the monetary policy stance are documented and discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Bacchiocchi, Emanuele & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Fanelli, Luca, 2018. "Gimme A Break! Identification And Estimation Of The Macroeconomic Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks In The United States," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 1613-1651, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:22:y:2018:i:06:p:1613-1651_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Woźniak, Tomasz, 2020. "Bayesian inference for structural vector autoregressions identified by Markov-switching heteroskedasticity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Toru Kitagawa, 2020. "Locally- but not globally-identified SVARs," CeMMAP working papers CWP40/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. G. Angelini & L. Fanelli, 2018. "Identification and estimation issues in Structural Vector Autoregressions with external instruments," Working Papers wp1122, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.

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