IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/macdyn/v13y2009i05p625-655_08.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Learning Dynamics And Nonlinear Misspecification In An Artificial Financial Market

Author

Listed:
  • Georges, Christophre
  • Wallace, John C.

Abstract

In this paper, we explore the consequence of learning to forecast in a very simple environment. Agents have bounded memory and incorrectly believe that there is nonlinear structure underlying the aggregate time series dynamics. Under social learning with finite memory, agents may be unable to learn the true structure of the economy and rather may chase spurious trends, destabilizing the actual aggregate dynamics. We explore the degree to which agents' forecasts are drawn toward a minimal state variable learning equilibrium as well as a weaker long-run consistency condition.

Suggested Citation

  • Georges, Christophre & Wallace, John C., 2009. "Learning Dynamics And Nonlinear Misspecification In An Artificial Financial Market," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(5), pages 625-655, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:13:y:2009:i:05:p:625-655_08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1365100509080262/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chiarella, Carl & Iori, Giulia, 2009. "The impact of heterogeneous trading rules on the limit order book and order flows," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 525-537.
    2. Allen, Todd W. & Carroll, Christopher D., 2001. "Individual Learning About Consumption," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 255-271, April.
    3. Jasmina Arifovic & James Bullard & Olena Kostyshyna, 2013. "Social Learning and Monetary Policy Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(567), pages 38-76, March.
    4. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
    5. Bennett McCallum, 1999. "Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion in Rational Expectations Models," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 621-639, November.
    6. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1994. "Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-28, January.
    7. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2003. "Learning with bounded memory in stochastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1437-1457, June.
    8. Chakrabarti, Rajesh, 2000. "Just another day in the inter-bank foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 29-64, April.
    9. Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007. "Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1938-1970, June.
    10. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
    11. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2007. "Search in Asset Markets: Market Structure, Liquidity, and Welfare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 198-202, May.
    12. Carl Chiarella & Giulia Iori, 2002. "A simulation analysis of the microstructure of double auction markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(5), pages 346-353.
    13. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Learning To Forecast And Cyclical Behavior Of Output And Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
    14. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O. O., 2005. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 7-42, February.
    15. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Judd, Kenneth L., 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10368, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1998. "Learning And The Stability Of Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 22-48, March.
    17. Youssefmir, Michael & Huberman, Bernardo A., 1997. "Clustered volatility in multiagent dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 101-118, January.
    18. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1999. "Using Genetic Algorithms to Model the Evolution of Heterogeneous Beliefs," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 41-60, February.
    19. James Forder, 2007. "Monetary Policy," Chapters, in: Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer (ed.), A Handbook of Alternative Monetary Economics, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas, 2007. "A Noise Trader Model As A Generator Of Apparent Financial Power Laws And Long Memory," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 80-101, November.
    21. Chen, Shu-Heng & Yeh, Chia-Hsuan, 2002. "On the emergent properties of artificial stock markets: the efficient market hypothesis and the rational expectations hypothesis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 217-239, October.
    22. Lux, Thomas & Schornstein, Sascha, 2005. "Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 169-196, February.
    23. Enriqueta Aragones & Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler, 2012. "Fact-Free Learning," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Case-Based Predictions An Axiomatic Approach to Prediction, Classification and Statistical Learning, chapter 8, pages 185-210, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    24. Vince Darley & Alexander V Outkin, 2007. "A NASDAQ Market Simulation:Insights on a Major Market from the Science of Complex Adaptive Systems," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6217, December.
    25. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
    26. Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
    27. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    28. John C. Wallace & Christophre Georges, 2003. "Learning Dynamics, Nonlinear Misspecification, and Trading," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 209, Society for Computational Economics.
    29. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
    30. Chen, Shu-Heng & Yeh, Chia-Hsuan, 2001. "Evolving traders and the business school with genetic programming: A new architecture of the agent-based artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 363-393, March.
    31. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-137, February.
    32. J. Doyne Farmer & Paolo Patelli & Ilija I. Zovko, 2003. "The Predictive Power of Zero Intelligence in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0309233, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2004.
    33. Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics," Handbook of Computational Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    34. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 264-295, March.
    35. Georges, Christophre, 2006. "Learning with misspecification in an artificial currency market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 70-84, May.
    36. Nicolas Audet & Toni Gravelle & Jing Yang, 2002. "Alternative Trading Systems: Does One Shoe Fit All?," Staff Working Papers 02-33, Bank of Canada.
    37. Georges, Christophre, 2008. "Bounded memory, overparameterized forecast rules, and instability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 129-135, February.
    38. Chia-Hsuan Yeh, 2003. "Tick Size and Market Performance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 112, Society for Computational Economics.
    39. Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 287-321, September.
    40. Vriend, Nicolaas J., 2000. "An illustration of the essential difference between individual and social learning, and its consequences for computational analyses," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, January.
    41. Georges, Christophre, 2008. "Staggered updating in an artificial financial market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2809-2825, September.
    42. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
    43. LeBaron, Blake & Yamamoto, Ryuichi, 2007. "Long-memory in an order-driven market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(1), pages 85-89.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Georges, Christophre, 2008. "Staggered updating in an artificial financial market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2809-2825, September.
    2. Yong Shi & Bo Li & Guangle Du, 2021. "Pyramid scheme in stock market: a kind of financial market simulation," Papers 2102.02179, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    3. Thomas Holtfort, 2019. "From standard to evolutionary finance: a literature survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 207-232, June.
    4. Georges, Christophre, 2008. "Bounded memory, overparameterized forecast rules, and instability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 129-135, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Georges, Christophre, 2008. "Staggered updating in an artificial financial market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2809-2825, September.
    2. Georges, Christophre, 2006. "Learning with misspecification in an artificial currency market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 70-84, May.
    3. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    4. Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
    5. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2009. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1912-1928, November.
    6. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233, Elsevier.
    7. Alexandru Mandes & Peter Winker, 2017. "Complexity and model comparison in agent based modeling of financial markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(3), pages 469-506, October.
    8. Anufriev, Mikhail & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2009. "Asset prices, traders' behavior and market design," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1073-1090, May.
    9. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    10. Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2008. "Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-054/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    12. Chia-Hsuan Yeh & Chun-Yi Yang, 2013. "Do price limits hurt the market?," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 125-153, April.
    13. Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance, In: Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics, edited by Leigh Tesfatsion and Ken Judd , Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    14. Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), 2008. "Handbook on Information Technology in Finance," International Handbooks on Information Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-49487-4, November.
    15. Vivien Lespagnol & Juliette Rouchier, 2018. "Trading Volume and Price Distortion: An Agent-Based Model with Heterogenous Knowledge of Fundamentals," Post-Print hal-02084910, HAL.
    16. Tai, Chung-Ching & Chen, Shu-Heng & Yang, Lee-Xieng, 2018. "Cognitive ability and earnings performance: Evidence from double auction market experiments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 409-440.
    17. Hommes, Cars & Kiseleva, Tatiana & Kuznetsov, Yuri & Verbic, Miroslav, 2012. "Is More Memory In Evolutionary Selection (De)Stabilizing?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 335-357, June.
    18. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Stochastic behavioral asset pricing models and the stylized facts," Economics Working Papers 2008-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    19. Vivien Lespagnol & Juliette Rouchier, 2018. "Trading Volume and Price Distortion: An Agent-Based Model with Heterogenous Knowledge of Fundamentals," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 991-1020, April.
    20. E. Samanidou & E. Zschischang & D. Stauffer & T. Lux, 2007. "Agent-based Models of Financial Markets," Papers physics/0701140, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:13:y:2009:i:05:p:625-655_08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/mdy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.