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Fiscal sustainability and public debt in an endogenous growth model

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  • MORAGA, JESÚS FERNÁNDEZ-HUERTAS
  • VIDAL, JEAN-PIERRE

Abstract

This paper investigates fiscal sustainability in an overlapping generations economy with endogenous growth coming from human capital formation through educational spending. We assess how budgetary imbalances affect economic dynamics and the outlook for economic growth, thereby providing a rationale for fiscal rules ensuring sustainability. Our results show that the appropriate response of fiscal policy to temporary shocks is not trivial in the absence of fiscal rules. Fiscal rules allow for a timely reaction, thereby avoiding possibly disruptive fiscal adjustment in the future: the more adjustment is delayed, the larger is its necessary scale. We perform a rough calibration of the model to simulate the effects of a demographic shock (change in the population growth rate) under different fiscal policy scenarios. JEL Classification: E62, H63, H55, O41, E17

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Journal of Pension Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 9 (2010)
Issue (Month): 02 (April)
Pages: 277-302

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Handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:9:y:2010:i:02:p:277-302_00

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  1. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
  2. Willem H. Buiter, 2003. "Ten Commandments for a Fiscal Rule in the E(M)U," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 84-99.
  3. Rankin, Neil & Roffia, Barbara, 1999. "Maximum Sustainable Government Debt in the Overlapping Generations Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 2076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2004. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Giammarioli, Nicola, 2004. "Fiscal rules and sustainability of public finances in an endogenous growth model," Working Paper Series 0381, European Central Bank.
  6. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1994. "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," NBER Working Papers 4637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Michel, Philippe & Thibault, Emmanuel & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2006. "Intergenerational altruism and neoclassical growth models," Handbook on the Economics of Giving, Reciprocity and Altruism, Elsevier.
  8. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2000. "Good, Bad or Ugly? On The Effects of Fiscal Rules with Creative Accounting," IMF Working Papers 00/172, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Enrique G. Mendoza & Assaf Razin & Linda L. Tesar, 1995. "Effective Tax Rates in Macroeconomics: Cross-Country Estimates of Tax Rates on Factor Incomes and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 4864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Michel, Philippe & von Thadden, Leopold & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2006. "Debt stabilizing fiscal rules," Working Paper Series 0576, European Central Bank.
  2. N. Bilkic & B. Carreras Painter & T. Gries, 2013. "Unsustainable sovereign debt—is the Euro crisis only the tip of the iceberg?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-45, March.
  3. Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "EU fiscal rules: issues and lessons from political economy," Working Paper Series 0421, European Central Bank.
  4. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, EconWPA.
  5. P R Agénor & D Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 73, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  6. T. Buyse & F. Heylen, 2012. "Leaving the empirical (battle)ground: Output and welfare effects of fiscal consolidation in general equilibrium," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/826, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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