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A theory for formation of large empires

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  • Turchin, Peter

Abstract

Between 3000 BCE and 1800 CE there were more than sixty ‘mega-empires’ that, at the peak, controlled an area of at least one million square kilometres. What were the forces that kept together such huge pre-industrial states? I propose a model for one route to mega-empire, motivated by imperial dynamics in eastern Asia, the world region with the highest concentration of mega-empires. This ‘mirror-empires’ model proposes that antagonistic interactions between nomadic pastoralists and settled agriculturalists result in an autocatalytic process, which pressures both nomadic and farming polities to scale up polity size, and thus military power. The model suggests that location near a steppe frontier should correlate with the frequency of imperiogenesis. A worldwide survey supports this prediction: over 90% of mega-empires arose within or next to the Old World’s arid belt, running from the Sahara desert to the Gobi desert. Specific case studies are also plausibly explained by this model. There are, however, other possible mechanisms for generating empires, of which a few are discussed at the end of the article.

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  • Turchin, Peter, 2009. "A theory for formation of large empires," Journal of Global History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 191-217, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jglhis:v:4:y:2009:i:02:p:191-217_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiwei Qian & Tuan‐Hwee Sng, 2021. "The state in Chinese economic history," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 359-395, November.
    2. Chiu Yu Ko & Mark Koyama & Tuan†Hwee Sng, 2018. "Unified China And Divided Europe," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 285-327, February.
    3. James Kai-sing Kung & Ömer Özak & Louis Putterman & Shuang Shi, 2020. "Millet, Rice, and Isolation: Origins and Persistence of the World's Most Enduring Mega-State," Departmental Working Papers 2202, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    4. Ma, Debin & Rubin, Jared, 2019. "The Paradox of Power: Principal-agent problems and administrative capacity in Imperial China (and other absolutist regimes)," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 277-294.
    5. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Mark Koyama & Youhong Lin & Tuan-Hwee Sng, 2023. "The Fractured-Land Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1173-1231.
    6. Qiang Chen, 2015. "Climate shocks, dynastic cycles and nomadic conquests: evidence from historical China," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 185-204.
    7. Ko, Chiu Yu & Koyama, Mark & Sng, Tuan-Hwee, 2014. "Unified China; Divided Europe," MPRA Paper 60418, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Shuo, Chen & Ma, Debin, 2020. "States and Wars: China’s Long March towards Unity and its Consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 505, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    9. Giacomo Benati & Joerg Baten & Arkadiusz Soltysiak, 2022. "Understanding the decline of interpersonal violence in the ancient middle east Abstract: How did human societies succeed in reducing interpersonal violence, a precondition to achieve security and pros," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2022/424, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    10. Shuo Chen & Debin Ma, 2022. "States and wars: China’s long march towards unity and its consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _199, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Ma, Debin & Chen, Shuo, 2020. "States and Wars: China’s Long March towards Unity and its Consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD," CEPR Discussion Papers 15187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Ruixue Jia & Gérard Roland & Yang Xie, 2021. "A Theory of Power Structure and Institutional Compatibility: China vs. Europe Revisited," NBER Working Papers 28403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Doug Jones, 2021. "Barbarigenesis and the collapse of complex societies: Rome and after," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-33, September.
    14. Moriguchi, Chiaki & Sng, Tuan-Hwee, 2022. "The Size of Polities in Historical Political Economy," CEI Working Paper Series 2022-02, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    15. Koyama, Mark & Moriguchi, Chiaki & Sng, Tuan-Hwee, 2018. "Geopolitics and Asia’s little divergence: State building in China and Japan after 1850," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 178-204.
    16. Gunes Gokmen & Wessel N. Vermeulen & Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2020. "The imperial roots of global trade," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 87-145, March.
    17. Rafael Torres Gaviria, 2022. "Horsemen of the apocalypse: The Mongol Empire and the great divergence," Documentos CEDE 20533, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    18. Gillian Brown & Peter Richerson, 2014. "Applying evolutionary theory to human behaviour: past differences and current debates," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 105-128, July.
    19. Glowacki, Luke & Wilson, Michael L. & Wrangham, Richard W., 2020. "The evolutionary anthropology of war," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 963-982.
    20. Debin Ma, 2011. "Rock, scissors: the problem of incentives and information in the traditional China state and the origin of the Great Divergence," Working Papers 11002, Economic History Society.
    21. Ricardo Andrés Guzmán & Sammy Drobny & Carlos Rodríguez-Sickert, 2018. "The Ecosystems of Simple and Complex Societies: Social and Geographical Dynamics," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 21(4), pages 1-10.
    22. Sylwester, Kevin, 2023. "On the duration of empires," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    23. Ma, Debin, 2012. "Political Institution and Long Run Economic Trajectory: Some Lessons from Two Millennia of Chinese Civilization," CEPR Discussion Papers 8791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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