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Anchoring Credit Default Swap Spreads to Firm Fundamentals

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  • Bai, Jennie
  • Wu, Liuren

Abstract

In this article, we examine the extent to which firm fundamentals can explain the cross-sectional variation in credit default swap (CDS) spreads. We construct a fundamental CDS valuation by combining the Merton distance-to-default measure with a long list of firm fundamentals via a Bayesian shrinkage method. Regressing CDS quotes against the fundamental valuation cross-sectionally generates an average R 2 of 77%. The explanatory power is stable over time and robust in out-of-sample tests. Deviations between market quotes and the valuation predict future market movements. The results highlight the important role played by firm fundamentals in differentiating the credit spreads of different firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Bai, Jennie & Wu, Liuren, 2016. "Anchoring Credit Default Swap Spreads to Firm Fundamentals," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(5), pages 1521-1543, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:51:y:2016:i:05:p:1521-1543_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoqing Fu & Matthew C. Li & Philip Molyneux, 2021. "Credit default swap spreads: market conditions, firm performance, and the impact of the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2203-2225, May.
    2. Gao, Feng & Li, Yubin & Wang, Xinjie & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2021. "Corporate social responsibility and the term structure of CDS spreads," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Yang, Shanxiang & Liu, Zhechen & Wang, Xinjie, 2020. "News sentiment, credit spreads, and information asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Andrea Ugolini & Juan C. Reboredo & Javier Ojea-Ferreiro, 2023. "Is Climate Transition Risk Priced into Corporate Credit Risk? Evidence from Credit Default Swaps," Working Papers 2023.04, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2017. "Understanding transactions prices in the credit default swaps market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-27.
    6. Yihong Ma, Simon Cottrell, Sarath Delpachitra, Xiao Yu, Ping Jiang, and Quan Tran Ha Minh, 2023. "What Drives Credit Spreads of Oil Companies? Evidence from the Upstream, Integrated and Downstream Industries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    7. Cottrell, Simon & Yu, Xiao & Delpachitra, Sarath & Ma, Yihong, 2021. "What determines wholesale funding costs of the global systemically important banks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Murphy, Austin & Headley, Adrian, 2022. "An empirical evaluation of alternative fundamental models of credit spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Srivastava, Jagriti & Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal, 2021. "In-kind financing during a pandemic: Trade credit and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 108951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Daly, Kevin & Batten, Jonathan A. & Mishra, Anil V. & Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2019. "Contagion risk in global banking sector," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    11. Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Sumit Saurav & Jayanth R. Varma, 2022. "Lottery and bubble stocks and the cross‐section of option‐implied tail risks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 231-249, February.
    12. Dick-Nielsen, Jens & Nielsen, Mads Stenbo & von Rüden, Stine Louise, 2021. "The value of bond underwriter relationships," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Gemmill, Gordon & Marra, Miriam, 2019. "Explaining CDS prices with Merton’s model before and after the Lehman default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 93-109.
    14. Bai, Jennie & Bali, Turan G. & Wen, Quan, 2019. "Common risk factors in the cross-section of corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 619-642.
    15. Jagriti Srivastava & Balagopal Gopalakrishnan, 2021. "In-kind financing during a pandemic: Trade credit and COVID-19," Working papers 473, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    16. André Höck & Christian Klein & Alexander Landau & Bernhard Zwergel, 2020. "The effect of environmental sustainability on credit risk," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 85-93, March.
    17. Nan Hu & Jian Li & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, 2019. "Completing the Market: Generating Shadow CDS Spreads by Machine Learning," IMF Working Papers 2019/292, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Chen, Ding & Guo, Biao & Zhou, Guofu, 2023. "Firm fundamentals and the cross-section of implied volatility shapes," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    19. Wu, Liuren, 2018. "Estimating risk-return relations with analysts price targets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 183-197.
    20. Xinjie Wang & Weike Xu & Zhaodong (Ken) Zhong, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, CDS spreads, and CDS liquidity provision," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 461-480, April.
    21. Zhao, Chen & Li, Yubin & Govindaraj, Suresh & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2022. "CDS trading and analyst optimism," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4).
    22. Kiesel, Florian & Kolaric, Sascha & Norden, Lars & Schiereck, Dirk, 2021. "To change or not to change? The CDS market response of firms on credit watch," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    23. Jaskowski, Marcin & Rettl, Daniel A., 2023. "Information acquisition costs and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

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