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Stock Market Mispricing: Money Illusion or Resale Option?

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  • Chen, Carl R.
  • Lung, Peter P.
  • Wang, F. Albert

Abstract

We examine two hypotheses to explain stock mispricing: i) the money illusion hypothesis (Modigliani and Cohn (1979)) and ii) the resale option hypothesis (Scheinkman and Xiong (2003)). We find that the money illusion hypothesis may explain the level, but not the volatility, of mispricing in the U.S. market. In contrast, the stock resale option hypothesis, which stems from heterogeneous beliefs about future dividend growth rates and short-sale constraints, can explain both the level and the volatility of mispricing. The evidence suggests that while the two hypotheses complement each other in explaining the level of mispricing, the resale option hypothesis provides a more coherent explanation for asset price bubbles, in which extraordinarily high price levels are often accompanied by excessive volatility and frenzied trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Carl R. & Lung, Peter P. & Wang, F. Albert, 2009. "Stock Market Mispricing: Money Illusion or Resale Option?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(5), pages 1125-1147, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:44:y:2009:i:05:p:1125-1147_99
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariko SHIMIZU, 2019. "Why do high ability people also suffer from money illusion? Experimental evidence of behavioral contradiction," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(618), S), pages 5-22, Spring.
    2. Pengyu Wei & Charles Yang, 2023. "Optimal investment for defined-contribution pension plans under money illusion," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 729-753, August.
    3. Lan, Hao & Moreira, Fernando & Zhao, Sheng, 2023. "Can a house resale restriction policy curb speculation? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 841-859.
    4. Liu, Dehong & Gu, Hongmei & Xing, Tiancai, 2016. "The meltdown of the Chinese equity market in the summer of 2015," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 504-517.
    5. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2016. "The predictive power of dividend yields for future infl?ation: Money illusion or rational causes?," CREATES Research Papers 2016-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Gwangheon Hong & Bong Lee, 2013. "Does Inflation Illusion Explain the Relation between REITs and Inflation?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 123-151, July.
    7. William G. Hardin & Xiaoquan Jiang & Zhonghua Wu, 2017. "Inflation Illusion, Expertise and Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 345-369, October.
    8. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2018. "Disappearing money illusion," CREATES Research Papers 2018-24, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Han‐Sheng Chen & Sanjiv Sabherwal, 2019. "Overconfidence among option traders," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 61-91, January.
    10. Tsai, Li-Ju & Shu, Pei-Gi & Chiang, Sue-Jane, 2019. "Foreign investors’ trading behavior and market conditions: Evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 52.
    11. Chen, Sichong, 2012. "The predictability of aggregate Japanese stock returns: Implications of dividend yield," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 284-304.
    12. Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2013. "Inflation illusion and the US dividend yield: Some further evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 235-254.
    13. Pujian Yang & Liu Yang, 2022. "Asset pricing and nominal price illusion in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    14. Krishnamurthy, Srinivasan & Pelletier, Denis & Warr, Richard S., 2018. "Inflation and equity mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 52-69.
    15. repec:agr:journl:v:1(618):y:2019:i:1(618):p:5-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Tsai, I-Chun, 2020. "Alternative explanation of the money illusion: The effect of unexpected low inflation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 110-123.

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