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Risk Premia and Preemption in R&D Ventures

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  • Garlappi, Lorenzo

Abstract

I analyze the impact of competition on the risk premia of R&D ventures engaged in a multiple-stage patent race with technical and market uncertainty. After solving in closed form for the case of a two-stage race in continuous time, I show that a firm's risk premium decreases as a consequence of technical progress and increases when a rival pulls ahead. Compared to the case where firms collude, R&D competition erodes the option value to mothball a project, reduces the completion time and the failure rate of R&D, and causes higher and more volatile risk premia. Numerical simulations reveal that competition can generate risk premia up to 500 annual basis points higher and up to three times more volatility than in a collusive industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Garlappi, Lorenzo, 2004. "Risk Premia and Preemption in R&D Ventures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(4), pages 843-872, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:39:y:2004:i:04:p:843-872_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Bustamante, Maria Cecilia & Donangelo, Andrés, 2014. "Product market competition and industry returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119031, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
    3. Meng, Rujing, 2008. "A patent race in a real options setting: Investment strategy, valuation, CAPM beta, and return volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3192-3217, October.
    4. Faninam, Farzan & Huisman, Kuno & Kort, Peter M. & Vera, J.C., 2023. "Real Options Models without Single-Investment Threshold Behavior," Discussion Paper 2023-029, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Dockner, Engelbert J. & Siyahhan, Baran, 2015. "Value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-16.
    6. Faninam, Farzan, 2023. "The Impact of Multiple Investment Opportunities on the Initial Investment," Other publications TiSEM 86ec19ad-bd36-470a-88c7-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. M. Cecilia Bustamante & Andres Donangelo, 2017. "Product Market Competition and Industry Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(12), pages 4216-4266.
    8. Bustamante, Maria Cecilia, 2011. "Strategic investment, industry concentration and the cross section of returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37454, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Yang, Bao & Chou, Hsin-I. & Zhao, Jing, 2020. "Innovation or dividend payout: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 180-203.
    10. Borisova, Ginka & Brown, James R., 2013. "R&D sensitivity to asset sale proceeds: New evidence on financing constraints and intangible investment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 159-173.
    11. Dou, Winston Wei & Ji, Yan & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Competition, profitability, and discount rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 582-620.
    12. Faninam, Farzan, 2023. "The Impact of Multiple Investment Opportunities on the Initial Investment," Discussion Paper 2023-030, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    13. Kamoto, Shinsuke, 2015. "Strategic capacity expansion under a potential entry threat," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 157-177.
    14. Moritzen, Mark Raun & Schandlbauer, Alexander, 2020. "The impact of competition and time-to-finance on corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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