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Seasonal Fluctuations in Industrial Production and Stock Market Seasonals

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  • Chang, Eric C.
  • Pinegar, J. Michael

Abstract

February and August peaks in the growth rates of the seasonally unadjusted Industrial Production Index follow the stock market peaks documented by Rozeff and Kinney (1976) by one month. Coefficients on one-month lead growth rates in industrial production for small firms are positive and significant in time-series regressions even in the presence of the market factor. Moreover, whereas returns on large firms' stocks unidirectionally Granger cause (i.e., predict) future growth rates in industrial production at least six months in advance, returns on small firms' stocks reflect one-month lead as well as past growth rates in industrial production. For these reasons, we argue that seasonal real growth provides a partial explanation for the January stock seasonal among small firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Eric C. & Pinegar, J. Michael, 1989. "Seasonal Fluctuations in Industrial Production and Stock Market Seasonals," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 59-74, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:24:y:1989:i:01:p:59-74_01
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arbab Khalid Cheema & Wenjie Ding & Qingwei Wang, 2023. "The cross-section of January effect," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(6), pages 513-530, October.
    2. Lepori, Gabriele M., 2015. "Investor mood and demand for stocks: Evidence from popular TV series finales," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 33-47.
    3. Wagner, Moritz & Lee, John Byong-Tek & Margaritis, Dimitris, 2022. "Mutual fund flows and seasonalities in stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Gu, Anthony Yanxiang, 2003. "The declining January effect: evidences from the U.S. equity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 395-404.
    5. Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2003. "Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 324-343, March.
    6. Camilleri, Silvio John, 2008. "Month-Related Seasonality of Stock Price Volatility: Evidence from the Malta Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 62493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Qiwei Chen, 2013. "Risk and seasonal effects: international evidence," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 299-311, November.
    8. Asli Demirgüč-Kunt & Edward J. Kane & Haluk Unal, 1990. "Capital positions of Japanese banks," Proceedings 293, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    9. Anthony Yanxiang Gu, 2019. "Strong March Phenomenon and Weak January Effect in the U.S. Bond Market," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(1), pages 193-193, February.
    10. Brian Lucey & Shane Whelan, 2004. "Monthly and semi-annual seasonality in the Irish equity market 1934-2000," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 203-208.
    11. K. Latha & Sunita Gupta & Arnav Kumar, 2016. "Relationship between Indian Stock Market Performance and Macroeconomic Variables: An Empirical Study," International Journal of Financial Markets, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(4), pages 109-121.
    12. Anthony Yanxiang Gu, 2015. "The June Phenomenon and the Changing Month of the Year Effect," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(3), pages 1-1, August.
    13. Fromentin, Vincent, 2022. "Time-varying causality between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Connection or disconnection?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

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