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An Integrated Theory of Exchange Rate Equilibrium

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  • Giddy, Ian H.

Abstract

This brief paper will show that (a) a theoretical equilibrium state of the world exists in the absence of capital controls and trade barriers when prices for the same goods in different markets are equal, after translation at the spot exchange rate; (b) differences in rates of aggregate price change in different markets eventually cause offsetting exchange rate changes which restore condition (a); (c) returns on equivalent securities denominated in different currencies but covered in the forward market are almost instantaneously equalized; (d) the market's expected rate of change of the exchange rate equals, to a close approximation, the control-free interest rate differential between the two currencies; (e) in the absence of predictable exchange market intervention by central banks, the interest rate differential is the best possible forecaster of the future spot rate; and (f) the forward rate also provides the best forecast of the future spot rate. A final corollary identifies a relationship between inflation rates and international interest rate differentials.

Suggested Citation

  • Giddy, Ian H., 1976. "An Integrated Theory of Exchange Rate Equilibrium," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 883-892, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:11:y:1976:i:05:p:883-892_02
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    1. repec:pra:mprapa:67187 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Wolfgang Breuer & Santiago Ruiz de Vargas, 2021. "Some key developments in international financial management," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(5), pages 595-615, July.
    3. Fred R. Kaen & Evangelos O. Simos & George A. Hachey, 1984. "The Response Of Forward Exchange Rates To Interest Rate Forecasting Errors," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 7(4), pages 281-290, December.
    4. Anton, Roman, 2015. "Monetary Development and Transmission in the Eurosystem," MPRA Paper 67323, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Oct 2015.
    5. Henri Loubergé, 1980. "Le risque de change existe-t-il?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 116(IV), pages 385-402, December.

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