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An Improved Annual Chronology of U.S. Business Cycles since the 1790s

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  • DAVIS, JOSEPH H.
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    Abstract

    The NBER s pre World War I dating of business cycles implies that the U.S. economy spent nearly every other year in recession. This article extends earlier efforts at redating for the 1796 1914 period using a single metric: Davis s (2004) annual industrial production index. The new chronology alters more than 40 percent of the peak and troughs and removes the most questionable cycles. An important implication of this is the lack of discernible differences in the frequency and duration of industrial cycles among the pre Civil War, Civil War to World War I, and post World War II periods.

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    File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0022050706000040
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal The Journal of Economic History.

    Volume (Year): 66 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 01 (March)
    Pages: 103-121

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    Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:66:y:2006:i:01:p:103-121_00

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    Cited by:
    1. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
    2. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-27, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
    3. Hanes, Christopher & Rhode, Paul W., 2013. "Harvests and Financial Crises in Gold Standard America," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(01), pages 201-246, March.
    4. Charlotte Le Chapelain, 2012. "Allocation des talents et accumulation de capital humain en France à la fin du XIXe siècle," Working Papers 12-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    5. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2011. "A Revision of the US Business- Cycles Chronology 1790–1928," Working Papers hal-00570304, HAL.

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