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History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II

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Author Info
FREY, BRUNO S.
KUCHER, MARCEL

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Abstract

Historical events are reflected in asset prices. We analyze movements in the price of bonds issued by five European governments and traded on the Swiss bourse between 1928 and 1948, with special attention to the war years. Some war events that are generally considered crucial are clearly reflected in government bond prices. This holds, in particular, for the official outbreak of the war and changes in national sovereignty. But other events to which historians attach great importance are not reflected in bond prices, most prominently Germany s capitulation in 1945.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal The Journal of Economic History.

Volume (Year): 60 (2000)
Issue (Month): 02 (June)
Pages: 468-496
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Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:60:y:2000:i:02:p:468-496_00

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-61, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Sobel, Russell S, 1998. " Exchange Rate Evidence on the Effectiveness of United Nations Policy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(1-2), pages 1-25, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  5. Willard, Kristen L & Guinnane, Timothy W & Rosen, Harvey S, 1996. "Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1001-18, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Smith, Vernon L, 1982. "Markets as Economizers of Information: Experimental Examination of the "Hayek Hypothesis"," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 165-79, April.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Oosterlinck Kim, 2004. "Why Do Investors Still Hope? The Soviet Repudiation Puzzle (1918- 1919)," Economic History 0409002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  2. John Landon-Lane & Kim Oosterlinck, 2005. "Hope springs eternal… French bondholders and the Soviet Repudiation (1915-1919)," Departmental Working Papers 200513, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Waldenström, Daniel & Frey, Bruno S., 2006. "Using Markets to Measure Pre-War Threat Assessments: The Nordic Countries Facing World War II," Working Paper Series 676, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Kim Oosterlinck, 2004. "Market microstructure and Nazi influence on the Paris stock exchange during WWII," Working Papers CEB 04-026.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
  5. Leigh, Andrew & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2003. "What do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?," Research Papers 1785, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Kim Oosterlinck, 2004. "La bourse de Paris sous l'occupation 1940-1944," Working Papers CEB 04-002.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
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