IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/jagaec/v45y2013i01p159-170_00.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Zakrzewicz, Christopher J.
  • Brorsen, B. Wade
  • Briggeman, Brian C.

Abstract

This article determines the accuracy of quarterly land value forecasts provided by bankers through the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions. Bankers' qualitative forecasts of up, down, or no change are compared against actual, self-reported changes in land values. A large proportion of bankers forecast no change. Despite this action, aggregates of bankers' qualitative forecasts help predict changing land values and forecast better than naïve models. Thus, the forecasts in the survey are helpful in predicting land values.

Suggested Citation

  • Zakrzewicz, Christopher J. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Briggeman, Brian C., 2013. "Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 159-170, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:45:y:2013:i:01:p:159-170_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1074070800004648/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Falk & Bong-Soo Lee, 1998. "Fads versus Fundamentals in Farmland Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 696-707.
    2. Barry Falk, 1991. "Formally Testing the Present Value Model of Farmland Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(1), pages 1-10.
    3. Emanuel Melichar, 1979. "Capital Gains versus Current Income in the Farming Sector," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(5), pages 1085-1092.
    4. Pope, Rulon D. & Kramer, Randall A. & Green, Richard D. & Gardner, B. Delworth, 1979. "An Evaluation Of Econometric Models Of U.S. Farmland Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Falk, Barry L., 1991. "Formally Testing the Present Value Model of Farmland Prices," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11093, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. William R. Keeton & Michael Verba, 2004. "What can regional manufacturing surveys tell us? lessons from the Tenth District," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 89(Q III), pages 39-70.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fiechter, Chad & Kuethe, Todd, 2021. "Agricultural Lenders and Farmland Appraisers Disagreement on Farmland Value Expectations," 2021 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition (Virtual Meeting), October 6-7, 2021 316031, Regional Research Committee NC-1177 (formerly NC-1014): Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    2. Ates, Aaron M. & Lusk, Jayson L. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2019. "Forecasting Meat Prices Using Consumer Expectations from the Food Demand Survey (FooDS)," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 50(1), March.
    3. Deokho Cho, 2015. "The Forecasting of Farmland Values for the Settlement of Farmland Pension System," ERSA conference papers ersa15p12, European Regional Science Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. B. James Deaton & Chad Lawley, 2022. "A survey of literature examining farmland prices: A Canadian focus," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 95-121, June.
    2. Pinto, Allan & Griffin, Terry W., 2022. "Detecting bubbles via single time-series variable: applying spatial specification tests to farmland values," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322534, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Albulena Basha & Wendong Zhang & Chad Hart, 2021. "The impacts of interest rate changes on US Midwest farmland values," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 81(5), pages 746-766, February.
    4. Laure Latruffe & Chantal Le Mouël, 2009. "Capitalization Of Government Support In Agricultural Land Prices: What Do We Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 659-691, September.
    5. Patrick de Fontnouvelle & Sergio H. Lence, 2002. "Transaction Costs and the Present Value “Puzzle” of Farmland Prices," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 549-565, January.
    6. Carlberg, Jared G., 2002. "Effects Of Ownership Restrictions On Farmland Values In Saskatchewan," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 1-10, August.
    7. Li, Xin, 2016. "The Farmland Valuation Revisited," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, April.
    8. Vercammen, James, 2003. "A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model Of Direct Subsidy Payments And Agricultural Investment," Working Papers 15847, University of British Columbia, Food and Resource Economics.
    9. Mykel R. Taylor & Gary W. Brester, 2005. "Noncash Income Transfers and Agricultural Land Values," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 27(4), pages 526-541.
    10. Newell, Richard G. & Papps, Kerry L. & Sanchirico, James N., 2005. "Asset Pricing in Created Markets for Fishing Quotas," Discussion Papers 10639, Resources for the Future.
    11. Katchova, Ani L. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Barry, Peter J., 2002. "The Effects Of Risk On Farmland Values And Returns," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19660, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Ahrendsen, Bruce L., 1993. "A Structural Approach to Estimating Rate of Return Expectations of Farmers," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 56-68, December.
    13. Feichtinger, Paul & Salhofer, Klaus, 2011. "The Valuation of Agricultural Land and the Influence of Government Payments," Working papers 119103, Factor Markets, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    14. Mishra, Ashok K. & Moss, Charles B. & Erickson, Kenneth W., 2004. "Effect Of Debt Solvency On Farmland Values: A Panel Cointegration Approach," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20261, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Hanson, Steven D., 1999. "A Simple Framework For Determining The Fundamental Agricultural-Use Value Of Michigan Farmland," Staff Paper Series 11641, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    16. Hanson, Steven D. & Myers, Robert J., 1995. "Testing for a time-varying risk premiumin the returns to U.S. farmland," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 265-276, September.
    17. Gutierrez, Luciano & Erickson, Kenneth W. & Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "The Present Value Model, Farmland Prices and Structural Breaks," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24702, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Gertel, Karl & Atkinson, Linda, 1993. "Structural Models and Automated Alternatives for Forecasting Farmland Prices," Technical Bulletins 156756, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    19. Onel, Gulcan, 2012. "The Use of Nonstationary Panel Time Series Data in the Analysis of Farmland Values," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124893, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Plogmann, Jana & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2020. "What Moves the German Land Market? A Decomposition of the Land Rent-Price Ratio," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 69(1).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:45:y:2013:i:01:p:159-170_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/aae .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.