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Exogenous Shocks, Foreign Aid, and Civil War

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  • Savun, Burcu
  • Tirone, Daniel C.

Abstract

The recent civil war literature suggests that negative economic shocks in low-income countries increase the risk of civil war. Foreign aid can be an effective conflict-prevention tool in times of severe economic conditions. Aid cushions government spending from the downward pressures of economic shocks, providing recipient governments with resources they can use to make rebellion a less attractive option for aggrieved domestic groups. Using Official Development Assistance (ODA) data covering 1990 through 2004, we find that foreign aid appears to be a useful tool for preventing civil wars in the wake of negative economic shocks, and as such aid should be assessed by donors with these conflict-suppressing aspects in mind.

Suggested Citation

  • Savun, Burcu & Tirone, Daniel C., 2012. "Exogenous Shocks, Foreign Aid, and Civil War," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(3), pages 363-393, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:66:y:2012:i:03:p:363-393_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick M. Regan & Richard W. Frank, 2014. "Migrant remittances and the onset of civil war," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(5), pages 502-520, November.
    2. Richard Bluhm & Martin Gassebner & Sarah Langlotz & Paul Schaudt, 2021. "Fueling conflict? (De)escalation and bilateral aid," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 244-261, March.
    3. Jonas Gamso & Jikuo Lu & Farhod Yuldashev, 2021. "Does foreign aid volatility increase international migration?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 581-598, July.
    4. Wong, Pui-Hang, 2017. "How development aid explains (or not) the rise and fall of insurgent attacks in Iraq," MERIT Working Papers 2017-006, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. Dijkstra, Geske, 2018. "Aid and good governance: Examining aggregate unintended effects of aid," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 225-232.
    6. Kotsadam, Andreas & Østby, Gudrun & Rustad, Siri Aas & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Urdal, Henrik, 2018. "Development aid and infant mortality. Micro-level evidence from Nigeria," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 59-69.
    7. Martin C. Steinwand, 2015. "Foreign aid and political stability," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(4), pages 395-424, September.
    8. George, Justin & Adelaja, Adesoji, 2022. "Armed conflicts, forced displacement and food security in host communities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

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