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Identifying economic crises: insights from history

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  • De Scheemaekere, Xavier
  • Oosterlinck, Kim
  • Szafarz, Ariane

Abstract

Economists have been blamed for their inability to forecast and address crises. This article attributes this inability to intertwined factors: the lack of a coherent definition of crises, the reference-class problem, the lack of imagination regarding the nature of future crises and sample-selection biases. Specifically, economists tend to adapt their views on crises to recent episodes, and omit averted and potential crises. Threshold-based definitions of crises run the risk of being ad hoc. Using historical examples, this article highlights some epistemological shortcomings of the current approach.

Suggested Citation

  • De Scheemaekere, Xavier & Oosterlinck, Kim & Szafarz, Ariane, 2015. "Identifying economic crises: insights from history," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 1-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:fihrev:v:22:y:2015:i:01:p:1-18_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Mounir Mahmalat & Declan Curran, 2020. "Fractionalization and reform: a framework of political collaboration with application to Lebanon," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 187-214, June.

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