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Global shocks, economic growth and financial crises: 120 years of New Zealand experience

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  • Bordo, Michael
  • Hargreaves, David
  • Kida, Mizuho

Abstract

We identify the timing of currency, banking crises and sudden stops in New Zealand from 1880 to 2008 using methodologies from the international literature and consider the extent to which the empirical models in that literature can explain New Zealand’s crisis history. We find that the cross country evidence on the determinants of crises fits New Zealand experience reasonably well. A number of the risk factors that correlate with crises internationally – such as domestic imbalances, external debt, and currency mismatches – were elevated for New Zealand when the country had more frequent crises and have improved in the recent more stable) period. However, a time-series analysis of New Zealand growth over 120 years shows that global factors – such as the US growth rate and terms of trade – explain New Zealand growth fairly well, and that crisis dummy variables do not have significant additional explanatory power. This suggests that having sound institutions and policies may help avoid severe domestic crises, but will not be sufficient to avoid the domestic economic impact of the global business cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Financial History Review.

Volume (Year): 18 (2011)
Issue (Month): 03 (December)
Pages: 331-355

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Handle: RePEc:cup:fihrev:v:18:y:2011:i:03:p:331-355_00

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References

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  1. Michael Reddell & Cath, Sleeman, 2008. "Some perspectives on past recessions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 71, June.
  2. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1995. "Speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates: an empirical exploration with special reference to the European Monetary System," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Ricardo J. Caballero & Kevin Cowan & Jonathan Kearns, 2005. "Fear of Sudden Stops: Lessons from Australia and Chile," Research Department Publications 4363, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Heather Kirkham & Nathan McLellan & Jared Sharma, 2002. "A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/26, New Zealand Treasury.
  5. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner & David Stuckler, 2009. "Foreign Currency Debt, Financial Crises and Economic Growth: A Long Run View," NBER Working Papers 15534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299, September.
  7. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2007. "Financial Crises, 1880–1913: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt," NBER Chapters, in: The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises, pages 139-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. de la Grandville,Olivier, 2009. "Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521898010, April.
  9. Bordo, Michael D. & Cavallo, Alberto F. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2010. "Sudden stops: Determinants and output effects in the first era of globalization, 1880-1913," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-241, March.
  10. Christopher M Meissner & Michael D Bordo, 2006. "The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Financial Crises: 1880-1913 vs. 1972-1997," WEF Working Papers 0001, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
  11. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth in the First Era of Globalization," NBER Working Papers 13577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. de la Grandville,Olivier, 2009. "Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521725200, April.
  13. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
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Cited by:
  1. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," Scholarly Articles 11129156, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Shi, Song & Ho Tang, Edward Chi, 2013. "Commodity house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 875-887.
  3. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," NCER Working Paper Series 75, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  4. Yan Sun, 2011. "From West to East," IMF Working Papers 11/120, International Monetary Fund.

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