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Ols Bias in a Nonstationary Autoregression

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Author Info
Abadir, Karim M.

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Abstract

An analytical formula is derived to approximate the finite sample bias of the ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimator of the autoregressive parameter when the underlying process has a unit root. It is found that the bias is expressible in terms of parabolic cylinder functions which are easy to compute. Numerical evaluation of the formula reveals that the approximation is very accurate. The derived formula inspires a heuristic approximation, obtained by leastsquares fitting of the asymptotic bias. More importantly, the formula proves analytically that the bias declines at a rate which is slower than the consistency rate, thus explaining some previous simulation findings. A case where the bias increases with the sample size is also given.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.

Volume (Year): 9 (1993)
Issue (Month): 01 (January)
Pages: 81-93
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Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:9:y:1993:i:01:p:81-93_00

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  1. Mukhtar Ali, 2002. "Distribution Of The Least Squares Estimator In A First-Order Autoregressive Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 89-119. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Wagatha, Matthias, 2007. "Integration, Kointegration und die Langzeitprognose von Kreditausfallzyklen
    [Integration, Cointegration and Long-Horizont Forecasting of Credit-Default-Cycles]
    ," MPRA Paper 8602, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. He, Changli & Sandberg, Rickard, 2005. "Testing for Unit Roots in Nonlinear Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 582, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kaddour Hadri & Yao Rao, 2006. "Panel Stationarity Test with Structural Breaks," Research Papers 200615, University of Liverpool Management School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Steve Lawford & Michalis P. Stamatogiannis, 2004. "The Finite-Sample Effects of VAR Dimensions on OLS Bias, OLS Variance, and Minimum MSE Estimators: Purely Nonstationary Case," Public Policy Discussion Papers 04-05, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Rolf Larsson, 1997. "On the Asymptotic Expectations of Some Unit Root Tests in a First Order Autoregressive Process in the Presence of Trend," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 585-599, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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