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Finite Sample Properties of Several Predictors From an Autoregressive Model

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  • Maekawa, Koichi

Abstract

We compare the distributional properties of the four predictors commonly used in practice. They are based on the maximum likelihood, two types of the least squared, and the Yule-Walker estimators. The asymptotic expansions of the distribution, bias, and mean-squared error for the four predictors are derived up to O(T−1), where T is the sample size. Examining the formulas of the asymptotic expansions, we find that except for the Yule-Walker type predictor, the other three predictors have the same distributional properties up to O(T−1).

Suggested Citation

  • Maekawa, Koichi, 1987. "Finite Sample Properties of Several Predictors From an Autoregressive Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 359-370, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:3:y:1987:i:03:p:359-370_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Tanizaki, Hisashi, 2000. "Bias correction of OLSE in the regression model with lagged dependent variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 495-511, October.
    2. Jing, Li, 2009. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for threshold autoregressive models," MPRA Paper 13086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kim, Jae H., 1999. "Asymptotic and bootstrap prediction regions for vector autoregression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 393-403, October.
    4. Kim, Jae H., 2003. "Forecasting autoregressive time series with bias-corrected parameter estimators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 493-502.
    5. Li, Jing, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 320-332, April.
    6. Carlos A. Medel & Pablo M. Pincheira, 2016. "The out-of-sample performance of an exact median-unbiased estimator for the near-unity AR(1) model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 126-131, February.
    7. Hisashi Tanizaki & Shigeyuki Hamori & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2006. "On least-squares bias in the AR(p) models: Bias correction using the bootstrap methods," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 109-124, January.
    8. Gonçalves Mazzeu, Joao Henrique & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2015. "Model uncertainty and the forecast accuracy of ARMA models: A survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    9. Li, Jing, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 320-332.

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