Simple, Robust, And Powerful Tests Of The Breaking Trend Hypothesis
AbstractIn this paper we develop a simple procedure which delivers tests for the presence of a broken trend in a univariate time series which do not require knowledge of the form of serial correlation in the data and are robust as to whether the shocks are generated by an I(0) or an I(1) process. Two trend break models are considered: the first holds the level fixed while allowing the trend to break, while the latter allows for a simultaneous break in level and trend. For the known break date case our proposed tests are formed as a weighted average of the optimal tests appropriate for I(0) and I(1) shocks. The weighted statistics are shown to have standard normal limiting null distributions and to attain the Gaussian asymptotic local power envelope, in each case regardless of whether the shocks are I(0) or I(1). In the unknown break date case we adopt the method of Andrews (1993) and take a weighted average of the statistics formed as the supremum over all possible break dates, subject to a trimming parameter, in both the I(0) and I(1) environments. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that our tests are in most cases more powerful, often substantially so, than the robust broken trend tests of Sayginsoy and Vogelsang (2004). An empirical application highlights the practical usefulness of our proposed tests.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.
Volume (Year): 25 (2009)
Issue (Month): 04 (August)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: The Edinburgh Building, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 2RU UK
Fax: +44 (0)1223 325150
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_ECTProvider-Email:firstname.lastname@example.org
Other versions of this item:
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A.M. Robert Taylor, . "Simple, Robust and Powerful Tests of the Breaking Trend Hypothesis," Discussion Papers 06/11, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2010.
"Unit Roots, Level Shifts and Trend Breaks in PerCapita Output: A Robust Evaluation,"
University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series
2010-02, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
- Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
- Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2009. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1227, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
- Kejriwal , M. & Lopez, C., 2011. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Working papers 334, Banque de France.
- Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Lopez, Claude, 2010. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," MPRA Paper 25204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," PSE Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
- Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2009.
"A Sequential Procedure to Determine the Number of Breaks in Trend with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component,"
Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
wp2009-005, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2010. "A sequential procedure to determine the number of breaks in trend with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 305-328, 09.
- Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2009. "A Sequential Procedure to Determine the Number of Breaks in Trend with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1217, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
- Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series [Revised to become No. 10/01 above]," Discussion Papers 09/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
- Kaddour Hadri, 2010. "What can we learn from primary commodity prices series which is useful to policymakers in resource-rich countries?," Working Papers 0001, Queen's University Management School, revised Nov 2010.
- David Harvey & Neil Kellard & Jakob Madsen & Mark Wohar, 2012. "Trends and Cycles in Real Commodity Prices: 1650-2010," CEH Discussion Papers 010, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2012.
"Unit root testing under a local break in trend,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 140-167.
- Fernandez, Viviana, 2012. "Trends in real commodity prices: How real is real?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 30-47.
- Rabah Arezki & Kaddour Hadri & Prakash Loungani & Yao Rao, 2013. "Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks," IMF Working Papers 13/180, International Monetary Fund.
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2010.
"Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series,"
10/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
- Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010. "Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 342-358, August.
- Harris, David & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009.
"Testing For A Unit Root In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1545-1588, December.
- David Harris & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Testing for a unit root in the presence of a possible break in trend," Discussion Papers 07/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
- Otero, Jesús, 2011. "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00564897 is not listed on IDEAS
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.