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Automated Discovery In Econometrics

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Author Info
Phillips, Peter C.B.

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Abstract

Our subject is the notion of automated discovery in econometrics. Advances in computer power, electronic communication, and data collection processes have all changed the way econometrics is conducted. These advances have helped to elevate the status of empirical research within the economics profession in recent years, and they now open up new possibilities for empirical econometric practice. Of particular significance is the ability to build econometric models in an automated way according to an algorithm of decision rules that allow for (what we call here) heteroskedastic and autocorrelation robust (HAR) inference. Computerized search algorithms may be implemented to seek out suitable models, thousands of regressions and model evaluations may be performed in seconds, statistical inference may be automated according to the properties of the data, and policy decisions can be made and adjusted in real time with the arrival of new data. We discuss some aspects and implications of these exciting, emergent trends in econometrics.The first version of this paper was written in April 2004 for the 20th Anniversary Issue of Econometric Theory. Helpful comments by the co-editor, Oliver Linton, Benno P tscher, Brendan Beare, and two referees on the first draft are gratefully acknowledged.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.

Volume (Year): 21 (2005)
Issue (Month): 01 (February)
Pages: 3-20
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:21:y:2005:i:01:p:3-20

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," CEPR Discussion Papers 4402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2002. "Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Testing Using Bandwidth Equal To Sample Size," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(06), pages 1350-1366, September. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kuersteiner, Guido M., 2005. "Automatic Inference For Infinite Order Vector Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 85-115, February. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
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  5. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Donggyu Sul & Peter C.B. Phillips & Choi, Chi-Young, 2003. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1436, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
  8. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:774-808 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Leeb, Hannes & P tscher, Benedikt M., 2005. "Model Selection And Inference: Facts And Fiction," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 21-59, February. [Downloadable!]
  10. Phillips, Peter C B, 1996. "Econometric Model Determination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 763-812, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Nicholas M. Kiefer & Timothy J. Vogelsang & Helle Bunzel, 2000. "Simple Robust Testing of Regression Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 695-714, May.
  12. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:537-49 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Hannes Leeb & Benedikt M. Potscher, 2003. "Can One Estimate the Conditional Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1444, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Laws and Limits of Econometrics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages C26-C52, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1, pages 19-46. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Duchesne, Pierre, 2006. "On Testing For Serial Correlation With A Wavelet-Based Spectral Density Estimator In Multivariate Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(04), pages 633-676, May. [Downloadable!]
  19. Lee, Jin & Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "Testing For Serial Correlation Of Unknown Form Using Wavelet Methods," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 386-423, March. [Downloadable!]
  20. Dietmar Bauer & Martin Wagner, 2003. "A Canonical Form for Unit Root Processes in the State Space Framework," Diskussionsschriften dp0312, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1995. "Bayesian model selection and prediction with empirical applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 289-331, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Bayes Methods for Trending Multiple Time Series with an Empirical Application to the US Economy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1025, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  23. Oliver Linton, 2004. "Nonparametric inference for unbalance time series data," CeMMAP working papers CWP06/04, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Teodosio Perez-Amaral & Giampiero M. Gallo & Halbert L. White, 2004. "A Comparison of Complementary Automatic Modeling Methods: RETINA and PcGets," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2004_12, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
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  25. Tony Lancaster, 2006. "A note on bootstraps and robustness," CeMMAP working papers CWP04/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  26. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Automated Forecasts of Asia-Pacific Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1103, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  28. Phillips, Peter C B & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "An Asymptotic Theory of Bayesian Inference for Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 381-412, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Danilov, Dmitry & Magnus, J.R.Jan R., 2004. "On the harm that ignoring pretesting can cause," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 27-46, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Improving on 'Data mining reconsidered' by K.D. Hoover and S.J. Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 202-219.
  31. M. A. Kaboudan, 2000. "Genetic Programming Prediction of Stock Prices," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 207-236, December. [Downloadable!]
  32. Bauer, Dietmar & Wagner, Martin, 2002. "Estimating cointegrated systems using subspace algorithms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 47-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jane E. Ihrig & Mario Marazzi & Alexander D. Rothenberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 851, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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