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Program sustainability and the determinants of farmers’ self-predicted post-program land use decisions: evidence from the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) in China

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  • Yang, Xiaojun
  • Xu, Jintao

Abstract

In this paper we evaluate the long-run sustainability of China's Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) by investigating the determinants of farmers’ self-predicted post-program land use decisions. We use data from a household survey conducted in 2005, with a particular focus on a dependent variable that reflects farmers’ ordinal responses to a question about their probability of converting the enrolled lands back to cultivation after the program ends. First, we find that targeting the program on steeper sloped and lower quality plots can significantly decrease the probability of reconversion. Second, there is a significant and robust household income structure effect on the reconversion probability. Third, participating households with the right to decide what to plant on enrolled land have a higher probability of maintaining the reforested land after the program ends. Finally, subsidy shortfall has a positive influence on the probability of reconversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Xiaojun & Xu, Jintao, 2014. "Program sustainability and the determinants of farmers’ self-predicted post-program land use decisions: evidence from the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) in China," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 30-47, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:19:y:2014:i:01:p:30-47_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Perrings, Charles, 2014. "Environment and development economics 20 years on," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 333-366, June.
    2. Jian Deng & Wenhui Hao & Wei Zhang & Xinhui Han & Kaiyuan Li & Yongzhong Feng & Gaihe Yang, 2017. "Exploring Farmers’ Pro-Ecological Intentions after Ecological Rehabilitation in a Fragile Environment Area: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Ting Ma & Kun Xu & Yiming Xing & Hang Shu & Weiguo Sang, 2020. "Tendencies of Residents in Sanjiangyuan National Park to the Optimization of Livelihoods and Conservation of the Natural Reserves," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, June.
    4. Chen, Qianru & Wu, Manyu & Xie, Hualin, 2023. "Tillage conditions or social economy? An analysis of the dominant driving force of farmland marginalization from the farmers' perspective," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

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