IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/astinb/v38y2008i01p207-230_01.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Robust Bayesian Analysis of Loss Reserves Data Using the Generalized-t Distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Chan, Jennifer S.K.
  • Boris Choy, S.T.
  • Makov, Udi E.

Abstract

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and the generalized-t (GT) distribution to predict loss reserves for the insurance companies. Existing models and methods cannot cope with irregular and extreme claims and hence do not offer an accurate prediction of loss reserves. To develop a more robust model for irregular claims, this paper extends the conventional normal error distribution to the GT distribution which nests several heavy-tailed distributions including the Student-t and exponential power distributions. It is shown that the GT distribution can be expressed as a scale mixture of uniforms (SMU) distribution which facilitates model implementation and detection of outliers by using mixing parameters. Different models for the mean function, including the log-ANOVA, log-ANCOVA, state space and threshold models, are adopted to analyze real loss reserves data. Finally, the best model is selected according to the deviance information criterion (DIC).

Suggested Citation

  • Chan, Jennifer S.K. & Boris Choy, S.T. & Makov, Udi E., 2008. "Robust Bayesian Analysis of Loss Reserves Data Using the Generalized-t Distribution," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 207-230, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:astinb:v:38:y:2008:i:01:p:207-230_01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0515036100015142/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Agata Boratyńska, 2021. "Robust Bayesian insurance premium in a collective risk model with distorted priors under the generalised Bregman loss," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 22(3), pages 123-140, September.
    2. Boratyńska Agata, 2021. "Robust Bayesian insurance premium in a collective risk model with distorted priors under the generalised Bregman loss," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 22(3), pages 123-140, September.
    3. Boratyńska, Agata, 2017. "Robust Bayesian estimation and prediction of reserves in exponential model with quadratic variance function," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 135-140.
    4. Wan, Wai-Yin & Chan, Jennifer So-Kuen, 2011. "Bayesian analysis of robust Poisson geometric process model using heavy-tailed distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 687-702, January.
    5. Dong, A.X.D. & Chan, J.S.K., 2013. "Bayesian analysis of loss reserving using dynamic models with generalized beta distribution," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 355-365.
    6. Alice X. D. Dong & Jennifer S. K. Chan & Gareth W. Peters, 2014. "Risk Margin Quantile Function Via Parametric and Non-Parametric Bayesian Quantile Regression," Papers 1402.2492, arXiv.org.
    7. Gareth W. Peters & Wilson Ye Chen & Richard H. Gerlach, 2016. "Estimating Quantile Families of Loss Distributions for Non-Life Insurance Modelling via L-Moments," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-41, May.
    8. Benjamin Avanzi & Mark Lavender & Greg Taylor & Bernard Wong, 2022. "Detection and treatment of outliers for multivariate robust loss reserving," Papers 2203.03874, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    9. Gareth W. Peters & Wilson Y. Chen & Richard H. Gerlach, 2016. "Estimating Quantile Families of Loss Distributions for Non-Life Insurance Modelling via L-moments," Papers 1603.01041, arXiv.org.
    10. Chan Jennifer So Kuen & Nitithumbundit Thanakorn & Peiris Shelton & Ng Kok-Haur, 2019. "Efficient estimation of financial risk by regressing the quantiles of parametric distributions: An application to CARR models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1-22, April.
    11. Sánchez-Sánchez, M. & Sordo, M.A. & Suárez-Llorens, A. & Gómez-Déniz, E., 2019. "Deriving Robust Bayesian Premiums Under Bands Of Prior Distributions With Applications," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 147-168, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:astinb:v:38:y:2008:i:01:p:207-230_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/asb .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.