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Does a Higher Sacrifice Ratio Mean that Central Bank Independence is Excessive?

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  • Alex Cukierman

    (Tel-Aviv University and Center, Tilburg University)

Abstract

Recent empirical studies show that sacrifice ratios calculated during periods of inflation stabilization are usually higher in countries with higher levels of central bank independence (CBI). This led some economists to conclude that CBI does not produce a credibility bonus implying, at least implicitly, that CBI may be undesirable. Using a simple model in which higher CBI is positively associated with the probability that preannounced inflation targets will be delivered, this paper shows that welfare is higher when CBI is higher, refuting this view. This result holds independently of the sign of the association between sacrifice ratios and CBI. The paper also points out that both Lucas¡¯, as well as Neo - Keynesian theories of the Phillips curve imply that countries with more independent central banks should have higher sacrifice ratios. Potential biases in empirical measures of sacrifice ratios are discussed as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Cukierman, 2002. "Does a Higher Sacrifice Ratio Mean that Central Bank Independence is Excessive?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(1), pages 1-25, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2002:v:3:i:1:p:1-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stephanos Papadamou & Eleftherios Spyromitros & Panagiotis Tsintzos, 2017. "Public investment, inflation persistence and central bank independence," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(6), pages 976-986, November.
    2. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "Determinants of the sacrifice ratio: Evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 117-135.
    3. Amarasekara, Chandranath, 2008. "Have the Sacrifice Ratios Changed under Inflation Targeting? An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 64867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Down Ian, 2009. "Central Bank Independence, Disinflations and Monetary Policy," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-22, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Disinflation; Sacrifice ratios; Central bank independence; Credibility; Phillips curves;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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