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2006-2050 Labour Force Projections for Mainland France: a Steady Working Population for an Increasing Large Elderly Population

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  • Élise Coudin

    (INSEE)

Abstract

The upward revision of the population estimates and the recent pension reforms raise questions about the future level of labour force resources available in mainland France. A baseline scenario, obtained by continuing the main tendancies of population growth (fertility, mortality, migration) and participation on the labour market provides a first but partial answer. The labour force will increase at a reduced speed up to 2015; then its level will remain steady between 28.2 and 28.5 million. A higher participation is expected for women and senior workers. Nevertheless, ageing will cause the ratio of workers to non working persons over 60 to decrease from 2.2 to 1.4 between 2005 and 2050. Alternative scenarii assuming different demographic evolutions and participation behaviours have been also considered. They would only have a minimal impact on that ratio.

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File URL: http://www.insee.fr/fr/ffc/docs_ffc/ESecostat_e.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques in its journal Economie et Statistique.

Volume (Year): 408-409 (2008)
Issue (Month): (May)
Pages: 113-136

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Handle: RePEc:crs:ecosta:es408-409e

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Keywords: Labour Force Projections; Participation Rate; Population; Ageing;

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