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Euro and Trade Flows in Central Europe

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  • Andrzej Cieslik, Jan Jakub Michalek, Jerzy Mycielski

    ()
    (University of Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the trade effects of the euro adoption in Central European countries using a modified gravity model. In particular, we analyze the ex post implications of accession of Slovenia and Slovakia to the Eurozone. We employ a gravity model that controls for an extended set of trade theory and policy variables. Trade theory variables include both the country size and factor proportion variables. Trade policy variables include the membership in GATT/WTO, CEFTA, OECD, EU and Europe Agreements. The gravity model is estimated using the panel data approach on a sample of CEE countries trading with the rest of the world during the period 1992-2009 using the fixed effects, random effects and Hausman-Taylor estimators. It seems that elimination of exchange rate volatility resulted in trade expansion for the CEE countries but the accession to the Eurozone did not have any significant effects on exports of Slovakia and Slovenia.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika in its journal Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 7, Issue 3 (2012)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 7-25

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Handle: RePEc:cpn:umkequ:2012:v3:1

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Related research

Keywords: Central Europe; exports; euro; volume of trade;

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References

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  1. Maryla Maliszewska, 2004. "New Member States' Trading Potential Following EMU Accession: A Gravity Approach," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0286, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  2. Belke, Ansgar & Spies, Julia, 2008. "Enlarging the EMU to the East: What Effects on Trade?," IZA Discussion Papers 3647, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
  4. Maurice J.G. Bun & Franc J.G.M. Klaassen, 2002. "Has the Euro increased Trade?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-108/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  5. Jelle Brouwer & Richard Paap & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2007. "The Trade and FDI Effects of EMU Enlargement," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-077/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  7. Aristovnik, Aleksander & Matevz, Meze, 2009. "The Economic and Monetary Union’s effect on (international) trade: the case of Slovenia before euro adoption," MPRA Paper 17445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461, October.
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