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Does historical VIX term structure contain valuable information for predicting VIX futures?

Author

Listed:
  • Juliusz Jablecki
  • Robert Slepaczuk

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Ryszard Kokoszczynski
  • Pawel Sakowski

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Piotr Wojcik

Abstract

We suggest that the term structure of VIX futures shows a clear pattern of dependence on the current level of VIX index. At the low levels of VIX (below 20), the term structure is highly upward sloping, while at the high VIX levels (over 30) it is strongly downward sloping. We use these features to predict future VIX futures prices more precisely. We begin by introduc-ing some quantitative measures of volatility term structure (VTS) and volatility risk premium (VRP). We use them further to estimate the distance between the actual value and the fair (model) value of the VTS. We find that this distance has significant predictive power for volatility futures and index futures and we use this feature to design simple strategies to invest in VIX futures.

Suggested Citation

  • Juliusz Jablecki & Robert Slepaczuk & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Pawel Sakowski & Piotr Wojcik, 2014. "Does historical VIX term structure contain valuable information for predicting VIX futures?," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14, pages 5-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpn:umkdem:v:14:y:2014:p:5-28
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    File URL: https://apcz.umk.pl/DEM/article/view/DEM.2014.001/5249
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo & Guizzardi, Andrea & Palladini, Fabio, 2019. "Forecasting and trading on the VIX futures market: A neural network approach based on open to close returns and coincident indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1250-1262.
    2. Julián Andrada-Félix & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2022. "Time connectedness of fear," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 905-931, March.
      • Julián Andrada-Félixa & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2018. "“Time connectedness of fear”," IREA Working Papers 201818, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    volatility term structure; volatility risk premium; VIX; VIX futures; volatility futures; realized volatility; implied volatility; investment strategies; returns forecasting; efficient risk and return measures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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