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Pago y sostenibilidad de la deuda pública: ejercicios de simulación para algunas economías latino americanas

Author

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  • Andrés Ramírez Hassan

Abstract

ResumenSe desarrolla el marco teorico implicito en la restricción presupuestaria intertemporal del gobierno. A partir de este se realizan una serie de simulaciones sobre el problema de sostenibilidad de la deuda publica, y los sacrificios fiscales necesarios para juzgar el actual nivel de endeudamiento sostenible. Se observa que Colombia ubicada en el contexto analizado se encuentra en un lugar intermedio con respecto al esfuerzo fiscal necesario para sostener la deuda publica, concretamente se requiere un superavit primario promedio equivalente al 2.51% del PIB. Esta magnitud es inferior a la requerida por Argentina y Brasil, pero superior a los requerimientos de Venezuela, Chile y Mexico.Abstract:Abstract: the present article develops the theory implicit in the intertemporal government budget constraint. From this framework it is run a series of simulations about the public debt sustainability problem and the needed fiscal sacrifices to judge the actual level of sustainable indebtedness. Within context analyzed, it is possible to establish that Colombia is located in a middle point in terms of the necessary effort to sustain the public debt. Concretely, it is required an average primary surplus equivalent to 2.51% of GDP. This magnitude is inferior to the one required in Argentina and Brazil, but superior to that of Venezuela, Chile and Mexico.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Ramírez Hassan, 2006. "Pago y sostenibilidad de la deuda pública: ejercicios de simulación para algunas economías latino americanas," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000442:010762
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deuda pública; Sostenibilidad; Superávit primario; Public Debt; Sustainability; Primary Surplus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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